Tarik Skubal’s free agency is a race against the clock—teams have 25 days before the CBA expiration freezes all negotiations. All transactions stop on December 1 at midnight until a new CBA is agreed upon. When Skubal joined the Los Angeles Dodgers during the trade deadline back in August, the Tigers’ ace hoped “those negotiations pick back up in November,” as he would “love to return.” However, as it turns out, the Tigers are a long shot. With the Dodgers and the New York Mets trying to outrun each other in the race to secure Skubal, the bidding war will turn ugly.

“The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers are the industry favorites to land Skubal, who is projected to potentially set a record as the highest-paid free-agent pitcher,” said Katie Woo on Dodgers Territory.

“Now, Skubal, represented by Scott Boras, who is obviously, and for good reason, going to want his client…to sign before the CBA expires…That means the Dodgers, Mets, and the couple of mystery teams that always emerge have roughly 25 days to figure out what the market looks like and what it’s going to take.”

The looming labor dispute is arguably the biggest factor separating Skubal’s free agency from a typical offseason. A potential lockout will disrupt the usual negotiating calendar and leave teams with fewer opportunities to complete major transactions, and Scott Boras will likely capitalize on it.

Skubal is considered the top free agent on the market this offseason, per multiple media outlets like MLB.com and The Athletic. There aren’t many pitchers who can match Skubal’s dominance, leaving teams looking for an established frontline starter with limited alternatives. The lack of options will create urgency and push teams to offer lucrative deals faster.

According to Woo, The Athletic has projected a 9-year, $405 million free-agent deal for Tarik Skubal. Skubal’s contract will surpass the Dodgers’ ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal.

With the asking price projected well above $300 million, the Mets and the Dodgers emerge as favorites for Skubal’s next destination. Both the Dodgers and the Mets have a reputation for offering massive contracts.

If the Dodgers have set a precedent by signing Yamamoto and Kyle Tucker (4-year, $240 million), the Mets have also set a standard of their own. With Steve Cohen’s financial backing, the Mets signed Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract. So, it is unlikely that the Dodgers or the Mets are going to balk at a high asking price. However, there are a few other factors at play as well.

Following their disappointing 2026 campaign, the Mets need reinforcement in multiple areas, especially after they turned sellers at the trade deadline. While Skubal can lead a rotation featuring Nolan McLean, the Mets must address their bullpen needs. Additionally, the franchise needs an infielder heading into 2027. With so many areas needing to be addressed, the Mets must reassess before investing millions in Skubal.

Other than re-signing or replacing a few relievers, the Dodgers may upgrade from Tommy Edman and Alex Freeland at second base. In comparison, the Dodgers are better suited to sign Skubal, with fewer roster needs to address.

While money is not an issue, offering long-term contracts might be. To avoid a long-term commitment, the Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker for fewer years at a high AAV ($60 million). Yamamoto was an exception.

Similarly, under David Stearns, the Mets have not committed to any player long-term, except Soto. New York even signed Bo Bichette to a three-year, $126 million contract.

However, those norms might change depending on how badly they want Skubal on their roster next season. Notably, the Mets have prior experience when it comes to signing starters before an existing CBA expires. In November 2021, the Mets signed Max Scherzer on a 3-year, $130 million contract. The $43.33 million per year set an all-time MLB record for the highest AAV at the time. Scherzer’s signing preceded the expiration of the existing CBA and a 99-day lockout.

However, whether the previous experience gives the Mets any edge over the Dodgers and any other teams that may pursue Skubal will be revealed soon. Meanwhile, the Cubs have also emerged as a contender for Tarik Skubal.

ESPN links Chicago Cubs to Tarik Skubal

While the Dodgers and the Mets are the obvious choices, the Chicago Cubs should not be overlooked. With their need to reinforce starting pitching, the franchise has been linked to Skubal multiple times.

According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, “The Chicago Cubs badly want Skubal.” 

While Chicago possesses the market size and a majority stake in its own regional sports network, Marquee Sports Network, there remain questions regarding the significant financial commitment. Despite Skubal’s elite arm, it’s uncertain whether the Cubs would invest more than $300 million in a single player.

Alex Bregman’s 5-year, $175 million contract is the biggest free agent contract the Cubs have offered recently. Jason Heyward’s $184 million free-agent deal, signed before the 2016 season, remains the largest total-value contract in franchise history. This won’t be the case forever, but only time can tell whether the Cubs will break their franchise record for Skubal.

For now, the bidding war exists between the Dodgers and the Mets as long as no other club extends Skubal an offer.