Tarik Skubal’s days in Detroit might be numbered. With 14 losses in 16 games, trade talks around Skubal have intensified. Detroit’s season is falling apart, while Skubal’s recovery from elbow surgery is speeding up. He has already started throwing just two weeks after the procedure

“Tarik Skubal trade chances are rising,” MLB Insider Jon Heyman said. “1. Tigers have lost 14 of 16 and are in last and 5 games out in WC race. 2. Tigers have 5 starters on IL. 3. Skubal is progressing since elbow scope. 4. Tigers’ chances to extend him are nil.”

Detroit has dropped to 20-31 in the season. After having a decent postseason run in 2025, the expectation entering 2026 was another postseason.

But the Tigers now sit last in the AL Central, 9.5 games behind the division leaders, the Guardians, and 5 games behind a Wild Card spot. And that is why Jon Heyman has said that the chances of Tarik Skubal getting traded are significantly higher than they were during the offseason. By the time the trade deadline comes, Skubal might be in a different uniform.

The biggest reason for this is that Detroit has almost no chance of extending him long-term. Skubal is still under team control through 2026, but executives expect him to test free agency after the season. If Detroit waits too long, they risk losing him for nothing. The Tigers just gave pitcher Framber Valdez a $115 million contract this winter. Because of that, they simply cannot afford the $200+ million deal Skubal will demand.

We have seen this before. Detroit held onto Skubal at the 2024 trade deadline when they thought they could win. But when things fall apart, the Tigers are willing to make a big move, just like they did when they traded Justin Verlander to Houston in 2017.

The injury situation has only made things worse for Detroit. Right now, Detroit has five starting pitchers on the IL, including Justin Verlander, Jackson Jobe, Reese Olson, Ty Madden, and Skubal himself.

Olson already underwent a Tommy John and will miss the entire 2026 season. Verlander is still recovering slowly from a hip injury, while Jobe continues rehabbing his elbow issue. Despite the bullpen sessions from Madden and Skubal, Detroit’s rotation still looks stretched to the limit. The positive news, if the Tigers are looking to trade, is the fact that Skubal’s recovery is actually moving in a positive direction. The Tigers’ ace has already resumed throwing bullpen sessions just 15 days after undergoing NanoScope surgery, removing loose bodies.

Before landing on the IL, Tarik Skubal dominated with a 2.70 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 7 starts. Those numbers are exactly why teams will have to give a massive prospect package, despite his injury concerns. And if Detroit actually makes him available, many believe the Los Angeles Dodgers are the immediate favorites to sign him. And a trade to the Dodgers makes sense.

The Dodgers’ starting rotation has serious questions despite strong starts in the regular season. Blake Snell remains on the IL with elbow problems, while Tyler Glasnow continues to recover from his latest injury.

LA still has baseball’s 3rd-best farm system, giving them enough prospects for a blockbuster Skubal package. And with many elite outfield prospects and the Tigers in need of some backups in the outfield, many believe that the Tigers will be asking for those top prospects if the Dodgers come knocking.

Another idea said that the Dodgers could also use multiple top-100 pitching prospects as trade assets for Skubal. The Dodgers are also one of the few teams that can offer Skubal the big bucks this offseason. And if Skubal eventually joins Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Snell, there will officially be no other starting rotation in baseball that comes close to this.

But the Dodgers are not the only ones in the race for Tarik Skubal.

Two more teams that are in the race for Tarik Skubal’s trade

Other than the Dodgers, two more teams might go after Tarik Skubal because, just like the Dodgers, the two teams need an ace in their rotation.

The first team is the Tampa Bay Rays. It might sound like a surprise landing spot for Tarik Skubal, but the move makes sense.

Tampa Bay has built one of baseball’s smartest systems despite carrying one of the lowest payrolls. Since 2020, the Rays have reached the postseason four times while developing top pitching talents into reliable contributors. Pitchers like Taj Bradley, Shane McClanahan, and Drew Rasmussen became important pieces in Tampa Bay’s system. And now adding Skubal could completely change the AL playoff picture, especially with the Rays doing well.

The Rays know how quickly a playoff window can close. They won 99 games during 2021, but still failed to make the World Series. This shows that they need postseason pitching experience. And Tarik Skubal would immediately become their frontline starter, especially with his top-of-the-line postseason numbers.

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers are leading their division. But they know exactly what happens when a team lacks elite pitching in October. The Brewers reached the 2025 NLCS, but the Dodgers easily swept them. That painful series showed Milwaukee how important frontline pitching is once October arrives. Because of that experience, Tarik Skubal could become Milwaukee’s biggest target if they plan to make another postseason run.

The Brewers understand that postseason chances will start to fade fast if they don’t keep up the pace, and the team could end up not even getting to the postseason. Or even if they do, it might end quicker than it did in 2025.

If Tarik Skubal does leave for Milwaukee, bringing a championship parade into Wisconsin might do wonders for the Brewers. And honestly, neither Tampa nor Milwaukee would regret gambling on Skubal.