The Chicago Cubs may not have a free run in the Wild Card series against the San Diego Padres, especially at Petco Park. The Padres earned the No. 4 seed in the National League postseason bracket, which makes them eligible for the home-field advantage and extremely tough for the Cubs.
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The Cubs have relied heavily on a potent offense, but their core hitters have historically struggled to replicate that success away from Wrigley Field. Star players like Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, and Dansby Swanson all experienced drops in their batting averages during road competitions this season. They average a .010 decline in batting average in away competitions.
Enough for MLB analyst Ken Rosenthal to sound the alarm for the Cubs.
“In their last 32 home games, the Padres, who of course got hot in the second half, in their last 32 home games, they were 26 and 6. That’s pretty good,” Rosenthal said via Foul Territory. “So that is going to be a problem for the Cubs. I don’t see the Cubs surviving this. I see the Padres winning it, but we’ll just have to see how this all goes down. It’s gonna be a fascinating series because the Cubs have been a tremendous team all year.”
The Padres proved to be a different beast at their home field, especially after the All-Star break. While they entered the All-Star break as a mediocre .500 team (48-48), they completely flipped the script by putting up a scorching 43-23 record after the break.
Led by a surging offense that posted the #1 batting average (.268) and #2 wRC+ (118) in the majors during the second half, they stopped relying on solo home runs and focused on stringing together hits. For reference, Fernando Tatis Jr. led the majors with 17 three-hit games, while rookie sensation Ethan Salas, Jackson Merrill, and veteran Ty France all sustained an elite offensive clip.
“Tatis got hot. Jackson Merrill got hot. Manny Machado, you could say it’s his worst season, still hit 30 home runs, still did some really big things down the stretch. So the Padres are in that place where they are a momentum team,” Rosenthal added.
Merrill and Manny Machado have been the twin engines powering the Padres’ lethal second-half offense. Machado capped off his regular season by reaching 30 home runs and 91 RBIs, solidifying his role as the primary clean-up threat. Additionally, he provided massive hits in high-stakes moments, including a crucial three-run blast against the Arizona Diamondbacks and a clutch late-game home run against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers to help lock down home-field advantage.
On the other hand, Merrill caught fire by batting .344 over the last 15 games. He closed out the regular season on a high note, racking up five multi-extra-base hit games over his last 19 contests to drive the Padres across the finish line.
Hence, with such dominance and the Padres’ recent record at Petco Park, Rosenthal doesn’t see any hope for the Cubs. However, chances are still there.
The Cubs can still surprise the Padres
“It’s gonna be a fascinating series because the Cubs have been a tremendous team all year. One of the best offenses in the league, one of the best defenses in the league. The Padres don’t play defense quite as well,” Rosenthal added.
The Cubs absolutely owned the regular-season series against San Diego this year, going 5-1 with a +27 run differential. Chicago took two of three games at Petco Park back in April and completed a dominant three-game sweep at Wrigley Field in the summer, capped off by a historic 23-3 blowout. Hence, the Cubs know how to win at Petco Park.
Additionally, the Cubs enter October boasting one of baseball’s most terrifying offenses. Chicago led all of MLB in total runs scored (850) and team OPS (.767) while topping the league in walk rate and slugging percentage during the regular season.
Hence, the Padres may be dominant at their home, but the Cubs are no less and apart from not having the home field advantage, the Cubs can still surprise a few.