Coming off big payday deals for Freddy Peralta and Dylan Cease, the spotlight is now shifting to the most accomplished free-agent starter still on the board: Framber Valdez. The former Astros ace is drawing strong interest, with teams like the Orioles and Blue Jays reportedly in the mix. Also, league expectations have him landing a six-year deal worth around $168 million!

Now, on paper, it’s easy to see why Valdez is in demand. The 2x All-Star put together a solid 2025 season, finishing with a 3.66 ERA and 187 strikeouts, and durability has never been a question. He’s cleared 175 innings in each of the last four years.

That said, not everyone is fully sold. According to MLB insider Jon Heyman, there’s a bit of a reality check coming for Valdez!

So while Dylan Cease cashed in with the Blue Jays for $210 million, Max Fried landed $218 million from the Yankees, and Corbin Burnes pulled in $210 million from the Diamondbacks, Framber Valdez isn’t expected to reach that same financial tier. That despite stacking up just as well, if not better, than all three. But why?

Age is a big one. Valdez turns 32 later this month. And that’s enough to make front offices nervous, especially when you factor in his workload. He’s logged heavy innings in recent years, which is why his projected deal sits closer to six years rather than the longer-term contracts the others received. Teams are wary of committing big money into a pitcher’s late 30s, where the risk of decline rises quickly.

There’s also the wear-and-tear concern. Valdez has shown a tendency to fade down the stretch in August and September, which could be tied to the fact that he’s thrown more than 190 innings in three of the past four seasons. And while his ground-ball ability is elite, his career hard-hit rate sits at a fairly high 46.3 percent. That means if he’s not backed by a strong infield defense, things could unravel faster than expected.

So, even coming off another strong season, this is where reality starts to set in.

That said, Valdez isn’t going to be short on interest. MLB insider Steve Phillips has mentioned the Orioles as a possible landing spot. Especially with Baltimore still looking to bolster its rotation after investing heavily in offense with Pete Alonso. The Blue Jays also remain a fit, as adding a left-hander like Valdez would help balance out a rotation that leans heavily to the right.

Bottom line, per Heyman: there will be plenty of suitors for Framber Valdez. It’s just the dollar figure that keeps coming down.

Teams may be worried about the controversies coming with Valdez

While there’s no questioning Framber Valdez’s dominance on the mound, he hasn’t exactly been controversy-free either. If you remember last season, he found himself at the center of controversy after a weird on-field incident in September 2025. He was accused of intentionally hitting his own catcher, César Salazar, with a pitch.

Both Valdez and Salazar brushed it off as a miscommunication or a simple cross-up. But the moment sparked plenty of criticism around the league. And it’s reportedly still lingering over his free-agency market.

That incident, paired with Valdez’s rough finish to the 2025 season, hasn’t helped his case. Reportedly, he went 2–7 with a 6.05 ERA over his final 10 starts, and analysts believe that late-season slide, combined with the “catcher incident,” has made teams more cautious about committing to him long term.

So despite all his talent and track record, there’s a bit of extra baggage attached. It’ll be interesting to see which team is willing to look past the concerns, take the risk, and offer Valdez the kind of deal he’s hoping for.