Paul Skenes’ ERA has climbed from 1.96 and 1.97 the past two seasons to 3.88 this year, and his fastball has dipped to a career-low velocity in the 95-to-96 mph range in his most recent outings. The Pittsburgh Pirates ace has also struggled to get through five innings on a regular basis. When paparazzi photos of him relaxing on a beach with girlfriend Olivia Dunne surfaced this week, some fans decided they had found their explanation.

“Skenes is simply not in shape for a pro athlete. In fact, it is not even close. IMO this cannot be helping his performance,” Dan Clark wrote on X. “My question – is he fully committed and doing all he can to perform the best he possibly can?”

Skenes made his MLB debut in 2024 and posted a 1.96 ERA that season, following it with a 1.97 mark in 2025. This year he sits at 3.88 with a 9-11 record, and after averaging over 98 mph and regularly touching triple digits in his first two seasons, he hasn’t thrown a single 100-mph pitch in 2026 despite completing 134.2 innings.

His last start, Tuesday against the Marlins, ended with him being pulled after five innings and 65 pitches, having allowed one earned run on five hits and a walk before the bullpen surrendered another in the 2-0 loss. Manager Don Kelly said the early exit wasn’t related to any injury.

There’s no shortage of theories for what’s actually going on. Kelly has suggested the league is simply adjusting to a pitcher who set an extremely high bar in his first two seasons. Curt Schilling has pointed to a mechanical change, noting Skenes’ arm angle has crept up from his usual 23 degrees to 26.

MLB.com’s own advanced metrics show his expected ERA sits nearly a full run below his actual mark, with Pittsburgh’s defense ranking a distant 22nd in the league this season after finishing seventh a year ago. He also threw over eight innings for Team USA at the World Baseball Classic this spring, adding to an already heavy workload.

One Pirates insider has floated that Skenes added weight over the offseason as a possible factor in the velocity dip, though that remains a theory rather than anything confirmed.

None of that stopped the beach photos from becoming their own conversation.

Fans have plenty to say about Skenes’ beach photos

“Wow, he needs a trainer ASAP as lately he is getting shelled,” wrote one fan. The 24-year-old has not gone over 5.1 innings in his last 4 starts. And he has allowed 20 hits and 15 runs in that span. More importantly, the Pirates have lost all 4 of those games. 

“To be fair, I have the same belly…so I won’t judge,” another fan took a sly dig at the pitcher. “Granted, I am a 61yo, beer-drinking, non-athlete but it is nice to see that he represents all of us!”

Some of them tried to make it more concerning for his health. And one of them said, “If he gets heavier, his arm gets heavier. That is the recipe for shoulder/elbow disaster.”

Well, he is technically right. Pitchers require a smooth kinetic chain starting from the legs and core. Unnecessary body weight can create roadblocks in that path. It will not only impact his performance but can also trigger injury. 

But there are so many fans that would argue that point, saying pitchers usually have higher body mass. 

And one comment read, “If you put every mlb pitcher in a line. About 65-75% of them look like this.”

While that specific data is unverified, there are so many comments mentioning CC Sabathia, David Wells, and Bartolo Colon among others. They simply put these legends as examples to establish that extra weight helps pitchers to throw harder and faster. 

But several fans are not ready to accept such reasoning. They simply see a lack of commitment in Skenes. 

That’s why one of them wrote, “I’ve been saying for months that he is banking on a cancelled 2027 season and will elect Tommy John.”

It’s hard to accept that a player or a fan, let alone anyone who loves baseball, wants to see a lockdown. And there have been no official reports of Paul Skenes requiring a TJ. While the comments are not hard facts, they perfectly reflect the frustration among the fans. And the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ 59-64 record (5th in NL Central) has done little to suppress that noise. 

True, the youngster is going through a sudden dip in performance. But the conversation has taken a dramatic turn. Skenes will have his next start in Boston against the Red Sox. And the fans will probably get a better answer to all their complaints.