Paul Skenes was never supposed to look human on the mound. Pittsburgh used the No. 1 overall pick in 2023 on an arm that seemed built to bully major-league hitters, and for two seasons, that is exactly what he did. He arrived throwing triple digits, added a deep arsenal, and quickly became the kind of pitcher opponents prepared for rather than attacked. But in 2026, hitters stopped looking intimidated, and Skenes suddenly started looking beatable.

“He’s broken and needs to get fixed badly,” one fan said. The reaction sounds extreme until you remember what Skenes looked like before 2026.

The triple-digit fastball was only the start. His splinker sat around 94-95 mph but dropped like a splitter, becoming the pitch he called his “confidence pitch.” Through his first six MLB starts, opponents hit just .073 against it. Hitters could gear up for 100 mph and still have to account for a pitch coming from a similar release point before diving underneath the barrel.

And there was more behind it. Skenes could manipulate his slider into different shapes, while his changeup became another weapon late in 2024, generating a 70% whiff rate that September. He was not simply overpowering hitters with velocity. He was changing speeds and shapes while making hitters cover several completely different pitches.

That is why the 2026 drop stands out so sharply.

On September 18 against the Royals, Skenes gave up five earned runs on six hits in six innings, including two home runs. Against the Giants on September 1, he was tagged for five earned runs in just 4⅔ innings. The problem is no longer a bad night. It is becoming a pattern.

The first crack is the velocity. Skenes averaged 98.8 mph on his fastball as a rookie and 98.2 mph in 2025. This season, that has dropped to 96.8 mph. His sinker has fallen too, from 97.6 mph last year to 96.6.

Former Yankees pitcher and YES Network analyst David Cone pointed directly at the problem in August. “He’s lost velocity. He was consistently in the upper-90s, and instead [he’s in] the mid-90s,” Cone said.

Those may look like small drops on paper, but for a pitcher who built his margin for error around overpowering hitters, they matter. His four-seam fastball has gone from producing 20 runs of value in 2025 to just seven this season.

That drop has come with another problem: command.

Skenes put 50.7% of his pitches in the strike zone last season. That number is down to 46.9% in 2026, while his walk rate has climbed from 5.7% to 6.8%. Hitters are also making more contact when they do swing, with his overall whiff rate falling from 30.1% to 28.1%. He is still getting strikeouts, but hitters are getting more chances to hurt him.

Pittsburgh sees the problem too. In August, manager Don Kelly said Skenes’ bigger issue was not the lost velocity, but his command. “I think command has been a bigger thing, at least for me,” Kelly said, adding that Skenes may be trying too hard to be perfect instead of simply attacking hitters.

And they are doing exactly that. Opponents slugged .307 against Skenes in 2025. That has jumped to .381 this season. His barrel rate has climbed from 5.8% to 7.1%, while the average launch angle against him has jumped from 12.2 degrees to 16.4. He allowed 11 home runs all of last season. He has already surrendered 19 in 2026. Hitters are not just reaching base more often. They are getting the ball in the air and doing more damage with it.

There is also a mechanical change underneath it. Skenes’ average arm angle sat at 23 degrees in both 2024 and 2025. This season, it has moved up to 26 degrees. His four-seamer has also changed shape, going from 14.0 inches of arm-side movement in 2025 to 12.5 inches this year. Even his changeup, one of the pitches that helped separate his arsenal, has gone from a .103 batting average against in 2025 to .244 this season.

Those changes may look small individually, but together they help explain why hitters are seeing a more manageable version of Skenes. And the rough outings have not been isolated.

He gave up five earned runs in six innings against Kansas City on September 18 and five in just 4⅔ innings against the Giants on September 1. That Giants start exposed the command problem clearly. “I’ve just got to throw the ball where I want it to a little more often,” Skenes admitted afterward.

The struggles were already showing before that. He gave up five earned runs in four innings against Cincinnati on July 31, five more in 5⅓ against the Cubs on July 25, and a season-high seven in only four innings against Philadelphia on July 1. Skenes has still flashed the old version of himself, including six scoreless innings against San Diego on August 25, but the bad outings are appearing far more often than they did during his first two seasons.

And those repeated collapses have changed the conversation around Skenes. What once looked like a temporary dip is now testing the patience of the same fans who expected him to anchor Pittsburgh’s rotation.

Paul Skenes’ Slide Leaves Fans Losing Patience

Not many fans are expecting a quick turnaround from Skenes. “Not sure how anyone can take Paul Skenes as a Top 10 SP next season. He’s broken and needs to get fixed badly,” one fan said. “Paul Skenes is a shell of his former self,” another added.

The frustration is understandable. Skenes went from a 1.96 ERA in 2024 and 1.97 in 2025 to a 3.91 ERA this season. Still, the collapse is not complete. He has 192 strikeouts, ranking 12th in MLB and fifth in the NL.

That is also why Mike J. Asti of WV Sports argued against completely writing him off. “It’s not like Paul Skenes can never be great again. His first seasons were historically great, and he’s still very young. However, the people who tried to deny there was a problem this season gotta feel foolish at this point. He doesn’t have to be a Cy Young contender every year, but the body of work was way below expectations and what the Pirates need him to be.”

Some fans are less patient. “I genuinely hate watching Paul Skenes pitch. Why is he still in the rotation?” another user asked. Pittsburgh, though, has continued giving him the ball. He has thrown 168 innings and still leads the Pirates with 192 strikeouts.

A bad season does not necessarily mean the decline is permanent. Justin Verlander missed nearly two full seasons after an elbow injury, then returned in 2022 with a 1.75 ERA. Skenes is only 24, leaving plenty of room for an adjustment.

Others are already looking toward the offseason. “Would not be surprised if we see a little ‘clean-up procedure’ go down in the offseason. That would oddly make me feel better,” one user wrote. Another went further: “I’m completely over Skenes at this point. The arrogant bum can be shipped to New York or LA this winter.”

That naturally brings the trade chatter back. The Yankees and Dodgers have been linked with Skenes before, while Pittsburgh has resisted moving him. With his arbitration years approaching, the financial pressure will only grow.

But trading him after the worst season of his young career would be a gamble too. Pittsburgh would be betting that the velocity, command and mechanical issues cannot be fixed. For a 24-year-old who dominated his first two seasons, that is a dangerous assumption.