The Astros are sitting pretty at the top of the American League West! Just this week, they were the only team in the division with a winning record—thanks in part to the Mariners’ ongoing slide. Justin Verlander made his return to the mound on Wednesday in the Astros’ 4-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox. After a lengthy stint on the sidelines since June 9 due to neck stiffness, Verlander’s comeback was highly anticipated. And it happened at a crucial time for the Astros, especially given the rotation’s injury woes.  

Six Astros pitchers have suffered setbacks during their attempts to return from arm injuries. Three of them — Cristian Javier, José Urquidy, and J.P. France — required season-ending surgeries. Before his second stint on the injured list this season, Verlander had made 10 starts for the Astros. Justin Verlander’s shoulder issue at the start of 2024 was a setback, and he hasn’t been the same ever since, unable to deliver the results he did before such disruptions. Considering these issues, The Athletic’s insider Chandler Rome explained how Justin possibly won’t make the playoffs. 

Justin Verlander’s struggles persist despite two-month layoff

Monday’s game against the Reds was a tough outing for Justin Verlander, who described it as feeling like his third spring training start. With nine All-Star selections and three Cy Young Awards, you’d think he’d get some patience as he returns from a two-month layoff. But the truth is, his recent performances have been far from reassuring. In his first game back, he did manage to limit the Red Sox to two runs and four hits over five innings, but that’s about where the positives end. His next start saw a misplaced curveball against the Phillies completely unravel an otherwise decent performance. 

According to Chandler Rome, Verlander wouldn’t be the Astros’ top pick for a playoff start. “At this moment, Verlander would not be the Astros’ first or second choice to start a playoff game. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are. Yusei Kikuchi is pitching well enough to be Houston’s third choice” Rome noted. Looking at Justin’s stats, a 6.75 ERA over the last three starts is not ideal.

While his 3.66 FIP and a .367 batting average on balls in play suggest some bad luck, Verlander’s problems also include six walks, 19 hits allowed, and only 39 strikeouts from 113 swings. Moreover, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are ahead of him, and even Yusei Kikuchi, who’s been pitching well, might be considered for the third spot despite some reluctance to let him face a lineup three times. Hence, does Verlander’s recent struggles reflect that he’s got a lot to prove before reclaiming a leading role in the postseason?

Could Anthony Santander be Houston’s missing piece?

For the Astros, upgrading the lineup should be at the top of the to-do list. With the team looking to solidify its first base situation, potentially shake things up at third base, and add a corner outfielder, GM Dana Brown has his work cut out for him. While the idea of landing a star like Juan Soto is off the table, don’t be surprised if the Astros are in the mix for Anthony Santander. The switch-hitting slugger is having a standout year, making him a hot commodity. With Santander’s bat and versatility, he could be just the upgrade Houston needs to add some serious firepower to the lineup.

So, as the trade deadline approaches, fans are keeping an eye on Brown’s moves. If he can navigate this tricky market and pull off some key acquisitions, the Astros might just bolster their chances for another deep playoff run. Anthony Santander could also be a game-changer for the Astros, capable of filling multiple gaps and helping stabilize the lineup. On the other hand, re-signing Alex Bregman would be a smart move for keeping the clubhouse atmosphere steady and securing a position where the Astros don’t have a clear internal replacement. If Bregman ends up getting a bigger offer elsewhere, though, the team will need to find a competent third baseman, even if it’s just a temporary fix for a year.

When it comes to Yusei Kikuchi, his situation is a bit trickier. He’ll be part of a crowded starting pitching market alongside other Boras clients like Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell, as well as Jack Flaherty. This means the competition for his services will be fierce, and the Astros will need to be strategic if they want to keep him or pursue other options. Houston’s rotation is set for a shake-up with Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti all slated to return. Luis Garcia should also be back in the mix soon, adding another arm to the fold. However, Lance McCullers Jr.’s status is still shrouded in uncertainty, leaving a question mark over the rotation’s stability.

Do you think Justin Verlander can make it to the playoffs? Share your prediction in the comments.