The New York Mets are eyeing another Japanese sensation on the market, but history suggests that chasing star power means little if the front office fails to make the right moves. From Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Roki Sasaki and Kazuma Okamoto, Japanese talent has repeatedly dominated MLB’s offseason conversations. Now, Teruaki Sato is the latest name drawing attention after the NPB’s MVP delivered a monster season with a .306 average, 39 home runs, and 106 RBIs.

With the Mets searching for a first baseman, Sato could be an intriguing addition. But Bo Bichette’s return may have complicated their plans. And according to MLB insider Michael Marino, New York could be walking straight into a familiar trap, repeating the same mistake it made with Jorge Polanco last offseason.

“I will say it how it is. If the Mets pass on Sato, it will prove to be a massive mistake. I pushed for them to aggressively target Willson Contreras and Kazuma Okamoto, and instead they signed Jorge Polanco. Cheaping out and passing on Sato, barring a different unexpected strong solution, would come back to bite them,” Marino said via X.

Last year, the Mets signed Polanco expecting the high-impact bat he showcased during his excellent 2025 bounce-back season with the Seattle Mariners, where he hit 26 home runs with an .821 OPS. Instead, his offensive production completely collapsed. In 37 games, Polanco posted an abysmal .148/.201/.230 slash line with just 2 home runs and 6 RBIs. He accumulated a staggering -1.4 fWAR, tying him for the worst mark in all of MLB and cementing it as the lowest fWAR season by a Met in 15 years.

Moreover, prior to arriving in New York, Polanco had logged zero career major-league innings at first base. Yet the Mets’ President David Stearns structured an offseason plan expecting the 32-year-old middle infielder to comfortably transition to first base to shore up the infield defense.

The experiment completely vanished almost immediately. Polanco played just two games at first base the entire year before lingering physical limitations locked him permanently out of the field.

Polanco’s severe issues with his left ankle and Achilles tendon cropped up in early April. He spent the majority of the year on the injured list, managing a few deeply compromised stints exclusively as a designated hitter. Polanco was finally shut down in August for season-ending ankle surgery.

The contract is heavily scrutinized because it was the centerpiece of the team’s pivot away from Pete Alonso. He subsequently signed a five-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles. Alonso went on to smash 43 home runs with 113 RBIs in 2026. But the Mets’ inexpensive platoon fallback plan at first base completely sputtered.

This offseason, Sato is projected to sweep free agency. The Athletic’s Keith Law projected a $25 million AAV contract for around four years for Sato. Moreover, his elite bat speed and plus-plus raw power project to translate immediately into a 30-home-run threat in MLB.

The Mets’ lineup desperately needs a premier, middle-of-the-order left-handed bat. Sato could meet that need. However, the primary catalyst for the Mets’ cooled interest is Bichette exercising his $42 million player option to return to the team for the 2027 season. The team is highly satisfied with Bichette’s performance at third base. So, the hot corner is no longer an open vacancy that needs an expensive upgrade.

Sato is naturally a third baseman who also plays the corner outfield. The Mets’ current infield is effectively locked in with Bichette at third. Francisco Lindor leads at shortstop. A trio of highly touted infield prospects (Mitch Voit, Jefferson Rojas, and Émilien Pitre) is knocking on the door of the major leagues. So, Sato does not present an obvious defensive fit.

With the Mets yet to look out for pitching names, allocating another $25 million AAV for Sato after splashing $42 million for Bichette might get challenging. Per Marino, the Mets are making the same mistake as last year when they missed Contreras, Alonso, and Okamoto for Polanco.

After a 74-88 season in 2026, the Mets have less scope to take risks. Skipping Sato may prove costly going forward.