MLB might be heading toward its next major labor showdown sooner than fans think. A salary cap fight is quietly becoming the league’s biggest pressure point, and Jeff Passan believes the players are already facing a “major disadvantage” before negotiations even fully take shape.

According to reports, the league’s collective bargaining agreement is set to expire in 2026. And so far, there’s little sign that owners and players are anywhere close to consensus. That leaves fans bracing for the worst, as another lockout could be on the horizon.

Well, at the heart of the tension is the owners’ ongoing push for a salary cap. But according to MLB insider Jeff Passan, the players’ resistance to that idea isn’t just stubbornness. Actually, it makes sense and could protect them from a system that might ultimately work against their interests.

“The collective bargaining agreement expires in December of 2026.. Unless there is a deal in place, Major League Baseball is going to lock the players out. The real question at the end of the day is where can they find compromise,” Passan shared in an interview with presenter Pat McAfee.

The biggest flashpoint in the upcoming MLB CBA negotiations will almost certainly be the idea of a salary cap. But why are owners pushing so hard for it? From their perspective, it’s about cost certainty, better competitive balance, and boosting franchise values. A cap, they argue, would help smaller-market teams keep up with big spenders like the Dodgers while also putting a lid on runaway payrolls.

Now, just look at the gap: the Dodgers are paying Kyle Tucker a $60 million per year, while the Cardinals’ entire projected 2026 payroll sits at $57.5 million! To owners, that kind of disparity hurts MLB’s competitiveness. It creates a system they believe shouldn’t exist, especially when leagues like the NBA and NFL already operate with salary caps.

But Passan has raised an important question: what does a cap actually mean for the players?

For them, it clearly limits earning power. Players want wealthy teams to spend freely on elite talent because that’s how the biggest stars land massive deals. Introduce a cap in MLB, and those contracts get squeezed. So, it becomes much harder to imagine seeing another Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto–level deal anytime soon.

So should players really accept that trade-off just to give owners what they want? If you remember how Bryce Harper pushed back on Rob Manfred last year when this topic came up, it’s easy to see why Passan’s skepticism might be right here in MLB. No acceptance from the players means no consensus. That leads to a probable lockout in MLB. Will the owners find a compromise then? Passan wonders.

Demand for a salary cap in MLB is getting further fueled by the Dodgers

While the Dodgers aren’t exactly leading the charge for a salary cap in MLB, their actions are often cited as a major part of the problem. They’re constantly criticized for spending like no one else and stockpiling elite talent in their clubhouse. Right now, the Dodgers reportedly have eight players making more than $100 million. And they’re viewed as the heavy, heavy favorites to win a third straight World Series, all while carrying the largest payroll in MLB history.

Their recent signing of Kyle Tucker only poured more fuel on the fire.

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By handing him a $60 million AAV, the Dodgers have reinforced the idea that only something like a salary cap could slow them down from building what looks like a financial monopoly. Sure, there’s nothing illegal about what they’re doing. They’re simply operating within the MLB rules as they exist.

But if the goal is greater parity and competitiveness across MLB, many argue there’s no stronger tool than a salary cap. The catch, of course, is that it would come at a cost. And that cost would be felt most by the players.