The New York Mets’ $765 million slugger, Juan Soto, would be one of the hardest-hit players in MLB if Rob Manfred‘s recent proposal of a $245.3 million salary cap and a $171.2 million floor for 2027 comes into effect. However, Soto not only questioned the utility of a salary cap in MLB but also perceived it as detrimental to the league’s growth. As expected, he had the backing of a few more players, including MLBPA head Bruce Meyer.

“I don’t think that’s right, to have a cap,” SNY Mets shared as The Athletic’s Will Sammon quoted Soto. “Baseball is doing great. We’ve been increasing every year. It’s been great for baseball. We are in the best moment in baseball right now in all kinds of ways. Why should we have a cap?”

Currently, there are 8 teams with payrolls higher than $245.3 million and 12 teams with payrolls lower than $171.2 million. According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the 8 teams with higher than proposed salary cap would then need to reduce their payrolls by around $578 million, while the other 12 teams need to increase their payroll by around $617 million.

Hence, if the overall picture of MLB is considered, then average payroll will increase for the teams. But that does not apply to the marquee contract holders like Soto. For instance, Soto owes $57 million in 2027, and if the Mets’ total payroll gets capped at $245.3 million, the largest chunk would just go to one name. The only silver lining was that the proposal is not yet finalized and Manfred is open to more negotiations.

“I’m a simple soul when it comes to collective bargaining,” Manfred said. “Everybody gets to make their own proposals. I think if I said, ‘I’m not interested in increasing the minimum salary no matter what,’ I doubt that the union would say, ‘OK, that’s great; no minimum salary.’ It’s a process. We think we made a proposal that addresses probably the most significant business concern for us, and we think addressing that concern will have really significant upside for the owners and the players.”

Still, despite MLB’s push for a salary cap, MLBPA stands by Soto. “It works in basketball in that way because they don’t have as many guys, so you have a lot fewer guys for the pot to go around, and that’s a league where one or two people on the team pretty much sell the team. That’s a lot harder to do in baseball,” Soto’s teammate and the Mets union representative, David Peterson, said.

In the NBA, Rosters carry just 15 players. As limited star players dictate the outcome of a game, teams prioritize retaining their own stars at all costs. For example, LeBron James represented the Cleveland Cavaliers between 2014 and 2018. In comparison, MLB rosters carry 26 players on the active list and up to 40 on the major league roster. It makes it impractical to tie up the entire cap space in just a few massive contracts. 

“I thought they would try harder to make it look good,” Meyer said. So, Manfred, with his new proposal, just opened a new battle window. It also renewed the long-pending debate about whether higher payroll guarantees success.

MLB’s success is largely driven by payrolls

For the players, higher payroll may not always guarantee better on-field numbers, but with a better overall budget, a team can still overpowers it’s rivals.

According to Feinsand, big-market teams have largely dominated in MLB over the past decade. For reference, in the last decade, 85% of the big-market teams won the championship series, and 90% of the big-market teams won the World Series. The Royals are the only small-market team to have won a World Series in 2015.

In comparison, the last decade saw small-market teams winning the NFL for 5 times and NBA for 7 times, that too with their salary cap systems. So, it may look like that bigger payrolls guarantee success in MLB, which, again, the Mets are proving wrong.

The Mets are currently ranked last in the NL East with a 27-35 record, with a payroll of around $360 million. Bigger names are struggling, including Soto, who just scored 13 homers so far. Last year, the Mets also couldn’t secure a playoff spot despite splashing on Soto. Still, a higher budget increases the chance of winning a championship. The Dodgers are proving it right.