Another day, another twist in the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes. Remember, when the early $400 million projection surfaced, it raised some eyebrows? But things haven’t played out the way many expected. Big-market teams like the Mets, Dodgers, and Yankees were all rumored to be in the mix, yet nothing has actually materialized.

The result is that Tucker remains on the free-agent market, fueling a steady stream of rumors and speculation. This time, however, the latest buzz surrounding the Dodgers could genuinely shift the direction of the entire sweepstakes. Known for opening the checkbook and making bold statements, the Dodgers are rarely far from the front of the line when a major opportunity emerges.

“I’m going to say [Kyle Tucker is] not going to the Dodgers.” The discussion between MLB analyst Rob Parker, broadcaster Jon Morosi, and Anthony Castrovince offered a huge twist.

If you remember, whether it was Shohei Ohtani, Kirby Yates, or Tanner Scott, the Dodgers have consistently stayed ahead of the pack when it comes to spending big on free agents. In fact, they’re often the team mostly blamed for fueling the whole salary cap narrative, simply because their financial muscle can overwhelm the rest of the league.

So when Kyle Tucker’s name started getting tied to a $400 million price tag, it felt almost automatic that the Dodgers would be mentioned as the frontrunners. Insiders were confident, too. If any team was comfortable throwing around that kind of money, it was Los Angeles!

But if the Dodgers are truly out of the sweepstakes, doesn’t that change everything?

Well, it’s fair to wonder whether Tucker’s value takes a hit. It is hard to imagine either the Yankees or the Mets stepping up with another $400 million deal. The Yankees appear unlikely, especially with ownership clearly tightening the budget. The Mets may also hesitate after already going all in on Juan Soto. On top of that, the Dodgers have already surpassed the fourth luxury tax threshold, which would trigger a massive 110% penalty on any new signing and make the Tucker sweepstakes even more expensive.

If the Dodgers are not in the picture, it becomes difficult to see Tucker maintaining a $400 million valuation. A price adjustment may be inevitable as the market begins to take shape.

Tucker’s projection is already taking a hit

Lately, the buzz around the league has been that Tucker might pivot toward a shorter-term deal with a much higher AAV. So, the possibility is high that he could still pocket a massive payday, but in the range of $200 million or less on a four- or five-year contract. As per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Tucker will land a deal worth at least $300 million, even if the once-lofty $400 million expectation is no longer realistic.

So, all of these points lead to one clear takeaway: the market has shifted, and the impact is real.

That said, it also wouldn’t be surprising if things swing even further. We’ve already seen star players adjust their expectations recently, with Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman both settling for shorter or lower-cost deals last offseason.

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Because of that precedent, a similar path for Tucker feels entirely possible. In today’s unpredictable market, that kind of outcome might be less shocking than it once seemed.