Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Tarik Skubal, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, posted a 2.61 ERA across 10 starts after his August trade and now faces an MLB market projected as high as $500 million. Former New York Mets right-hander Ron Darling believes that kind of money buys less than it appears.
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“The problem is that these great players, whom teams are going to pay a lot of money, only pitch two-thirds of the game, and that’s on the high end,” Darling said on SNY Mets. “It would be like LeBron and Tom Brady not playing the fourth quarter. So how valuable is that?”
The MLB-wide data shows why the line stings, especially for a Dodgers club that made Skubal their blockbuster deadline bet.
Only 21 complete games were logged this season. Since 2011, no full MLB season has seen starting pitchers average six or more innings per start. Bullpens now cover over 40 percent of innings. A $350 million ace is largely buying 18 to 21 outs, which is the core of Darling’s doubt about the biggest investment a club can make.
Darling posed the comparison as a thought experiment to illustrate why pitcher contracts may not deliver the value teams expect. He picked those two names for a reason.
Tom Brady, the seven-time Super Bowl champion quarterback, built his legacy on 46 fourth-quarter comebacks, while LeBron James, the former Los Angeles Lakers forward, is regarded as a premier closer in the NBA.
An ace cannot own that role since starters average 5.05 innings on roughly 83 pitches and exit before the final stretch. Blown saves can erase their work, leaving the bullpen to decide the result.
Darling did not aim his criticism at the pitcher, though.
In the same SNY Mets appearance, he said, “Skubal is a very special pitcher, and any team is better the day they sign him.”
Skubal went 5-2 with a 1.05 WHIP after the Dodgers pried him from the Detroit Tigers at the deadline, then posted a 2.45 ERA over two October starts. The Milwaukee Brewers still swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS.
From there, Darling posed the question every front office must settle before signing the check.
“How far do you go? Is it the difference-maker you think it is? Because you still have to get nine outs.”
Those nine outs are where games tilt.
Hitters see their OPS climb roughly 10 percent the third time through the order, which is why managers pull aces early. A starter can leave with a 2-0 lead after seven, watch the pen cough up three in the eighth, and take a no-decision.
That math fuels a market that is both huge and debated.
Skubal is projected between $350 million and $500 million, right-hander Freddy Peralta near $140 million over five years, and right-hander Michael King around $120 million over four years. Yet, the dollars may not be the only sticking point in Los Angeles.
Dodgers reportedly want the MLB ace to accept a Tucker-style deal
Money is only half the puzzle because the Dodgers appear to have strings attached.
Katie Woo, The Athletic journalist, reported Tuesday that Los Angeles may not be a fierce competitor for its ace unless he accepts a structure like outfielder Kyle Tucker’s four-year, $240 million deal, which carries opt-outs after Years 2 and 3 and $30 million in deferred money.
Meanwhile, responding to talk of a fading dynasty, Skubal pushed back.
“I don’t feel that at all. It’s hard to win the World Series, and this group has done it the last two seasons. Obviously, not this year, but … I think that this group is incredibly talented.”
He also pointed to the clubhouse culture.
“And the preparation and the work ethic that this group has, I don’t buy into that narrative.”
Skubal, 29 and represented by agent Scott Boras, is expected to seek far more than four years and $240 million. Plus, Los Angeles just watched a roster built for three straight titles get swept.
Both sides carry leverage into a negotiation that is far from settled.