Jeff Passan’s newest trade rankings place Jeff McNeil, once signed for $50 million, at the top of the list with the highest odds of being moved. Add in the reported tension with Francisco Lindor and a shrinking role, and it’s easy to see why the Mets may be ready to move on. What really heats things is the Padres emerging as a realistic escape route, setting the stage for one of the first big moves of the trade season.

Jim Riley mentioned on BallCap Sports YouTube Channel, “Jeff McNeil came in at number 25. Suppose you get hung up on where players rank on a list like this. In that case, it’s interesting because he lands ahead of Nolan Arenado, ahead of Jasson Domínguez, and ahead of some other players who you might personally rank higher. But that’s not the point here.”

This means McNeil’s placement on the list isn’t about who’s better, it’s about who’s more likely to be traded. Even though big names like Arenado or Domínguez might seem like bigger trade chips, McNeil is ranked higher strictly because his trade probability is significantly greater. And that’s where the real context comes in.

“The key takeaway is that Jeff McNeil was given an 80 percent chance of being traded. That’s the highest of all 25 players mentioned. And it makes sense. Marcus Semien is now the second baseman. McNeil isn’t enough of an outfielder to take over left field, and there’s clearly a problem with Francisco Lindor, so it feels like the Mets are ready to move on.”

So Passan’s reasoning becomes clear. McNeil’s role has disappeared, his fit on the roster is slipping, and the tension with Lindor only adds to why he’s viewed as a top trade candidate.

“Passan identifies the Pirates, Giants, and Royals as potential landing spots. But I’d add the Angels and Padres into that mix. The Angels could give Christian Moore one more year while adding a veteran lefty bat they badly need. The Padres make sense if the Mets are willing to eat money. Jake Cronenworth can shift to first base, and Luis Urías may end up being too expensive to bring back.”

The Pirates and Royals don’t make much sense, but the Angels and Padres do, thanks to their positional needs and financial flexibility. The Padres become exceptionally realistic if the Mets retain salary. From there, another clear fit emerges: San Francisco.

“San Francisco also fits, since McNeil can slide in as their everyday second baseman. Fitzgerald and Schmidt don’t project as long-term starters at the position. Grab McNeil for a year and stabilize the infield.”

This makes the Giants one of the cleanest fits. Their internal options aren’t long-term answers, and McNeil could stabilize second base right away without a heavy trade cost. The other teams don’t match his profile.

“As for the Pirates and Royals, this isn’t the type of bat they should be targeting right now. So the most logical fits are the Giants, Angels, and Padres. If another team sneaks in and gets him, good for them, but it would feel like a missed opportunity for these three.”

This clarifies that rebuilding teams like the Pirates and Royals shouldn’t prioritize a player like McNeil. The real pressure is on the Giants, Angels, and Padres, who need his skillset more urgently and would be making a mistake by not pursuing him. Once you put all that together, the trade picture becomes even more definitive.

“McNeil shouldn’t cost much in terms of trade capital. Go get him.” “Passan and McDaniel list his trade likelihood at 80 percent. I’d probably go even higher, maybe 95 percent. It feels like a guarantee that he’s gone.”

This reinforces the idea that McNeil is almost certainly leaving the Mets. Given roster construction, tension, and trade-market dynamics, his departure feels inevitable.

All of that paints a clear picture of where the Mets stand — but the other half of this story is what a move could mean for McNeil himself.

What Comes Next for Jeff McNeil? The Career Reset He Might Need

Beyond the trade chatter, the real story is what a move could do for McNeil himself. With his role shrinking and clubhouse tension lingering, a fresh start may be the best path forward.

A new staff could help him return to his contact-first approach rather than forcing a power style that never fit his game. Ballparks like San Francisco or Anaheim suit his line drive profile, while San Diego could help him regain the plate discipline that fueled his 2022 All-Star season.

His skills haven’t disappeared; they simply no longer align with the Mets’ direction.

A trade could also restore his chance at everyday playing time. Teams like the Pirates or Giants could offer him a clear infield role, giving him the stability he needs to rebuild his value as he enters the final year of his contract.

The Mets have seen this before. Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy, and Brandon Nimmo all flourished once given the right opportunity. McNeil could follow the same path.

At this point, his situation feels more like a transition than a rumor. The Mets look ready to move on, and McNeil appears ready for a reset.

Wherever he lands, the chance to rediscover his best form may be the real upside of this entire trade story.