The New York Mets thought they were achieving a dominant closer in Edwin Díaz. However, instead, the Mets could have an open-door policy for stolen bases. With a deal worth $18 million a year, you would assume him to lock down games—not turn them into a track meet. However, this is where we are now, watching runners steal bases against him like they are late for a flight.

Struggles for spring training are one thing; however, Díaz’s inability to manage runners is becoming a full-blown issue. Last year, 28 out of 29 baserunners stole successfully off Diaz. That was not just bad—that was historically awful. The New York Mets need to fill the gap before their bullpen becomes a free ticket for competitors. The 30-year-old’s capability in strikeouts is elite. Still, his struggles in managing baserunners are just as intense.

The right-hander enabled runners to steal with near-perfect effectiveness. The rate was 96.5 percent, which was the worst among all MLB relievers who pitched at least 30 innings last year. Undoubtedly, Diaz’s 14.2 K/9 rate still ranked among the best. However, it did not compensate for the situation that once a runner reached base, it was necessarily an ensured stolen base. This is not just a minor flaw—it is a vital tactical disadvantage for the New York Mets.

“I am way more concerned about Edwin Díaz’s inability to hold a runner than I am with a lousy spring training outing… If I am the Atlanta Braves, if I am the Philadelphia Phillies, if I am the Dodgers… You get on first base, you’re running. Period. End of discussion“. This analysis from MLB Network highlights the magnitude of the issue. There are teams like the Braves, with 134 stolen bases in 2024, the Phillies with 126 SB, and the Dodgers with 142 SB, who thrive on aggressive baserunning. If competitor lineups exploit Díaz’s weak point, it could spell disaster in intense games. This will neutralize his capability to achieve large outs when it matters most.

The issue is not new; however, it is becoming more pronounced with the enhancing landscape. The launch of larger bases and limits on pickoff approaches has led to a 41 percent enhancement in stolen base success rates. Without management, Díaz’s late-game management could be compromised, making the talent a liability instead of a lockdown closer.

How injuries could compound the New York Mets’ issue

Edwin Díaz’s inability is already a red flag. However, the New York Mets‘ situation could worsen if their outfield defense struggles. Their depth could also go down if injuries continue to pile up. For instance, Brandon Nimmo is going through knee soreness, and Starling Marte is pushing through lingering issues. In such a situation, the team’s capability to safeguard runs could be effectively compromised. If Nimmo’s knee does not work, the team could have to rely on platoon options, which could decrease the Mets’ defense. In addition, with Marte’s history of playing through pain, there is always the issue of him being less effective.

In addition, the New York Mets cannot continue with a compromised bullpen. If Díaz’s control issues persist and if the team’s outfield defense is not at total power, it could be a disastrous mix. More baserunners will lead to more stolen bases, placing the Mets at a disadvantage. In addition, more balls in play could turn into extra bases, keeping the pitching staff under continuous force.

The front office could need to analyze depth options and be proactive in managing such issues before they spiral into a long-term issue. Spring training overreactions are inevitable; however, some issues need focus. Edwin Díaz’s struggles, which coincided with injury issues for Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte, raise valid questions for the New York Mets. Such early setbacks could be nothing—and they could be a sign of a larger issue ahead.

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