Since 2021, the American League MVP award has followed a familiar script. It’s been a two-man show starring Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. In 2021 and 2023, Ohtani’s two-way brilliance earned him the crown, while Judge’s historic 62-homer season in 2022 made him an undeniable choice. After Ohtani’s shift to the National League, the stage seems perfectly set for the reigning AL MVP to retain the throne. His power surge and commanding presence at the plate are unfolding just as expected, keeping the narrative intact. But there’s a catch. This year, a new contender is emerging, and the familiar script might just be flipped.

The Judge-Ohtani MVP monopoly that has defined the AL for the past several years might be broken. Contrary to the last few years, these two heavyweights are not topping the HR stats this time around. The Mariners’ slugger Cal Raleigh is holding the pole position with 36 HRs. And that seems enough for MLB analysts to spin their votes.

“I don’t have a vote, but if I did, I would vote today for Cal Raleigh,” Dan Plesac said in a segment on MLB Network.

Well, Raleigh does make a strong case this year. He is having an incredible 2025 season, and on Tuesday, he passed Ken Griffey Jr. for the most home runs by a Mariner before the All-Star Break, blasting his 36th of the year. Currently, he’s hitting .266 with 76 RBIs so far and showing no signs of slowing down. But is it enough to vote him ahead of Aaron Judge? That’s the question that has drawn intense reactions from the fans.

Aaron Judge is not only about hitting homers; he is the face of the Yankees. But in terms of home run stats in 2025, Raleigh is ahead of Judge, having hit 36 homers, as compared to Judge’s 34. But it’s worth noting that Raleigh never hit more than 34 HRs in a season before in his career. So, while Plesac made his choice, fans are divided.

It is undoubtedly a breath of fresh air to see a new face competing in the AL MVP race after several years. Now, till the time the season ends, the social media will continue to heat up.

Fans are divided between Judge and Raleigh

“He deserves it. You could flip a coin right now. But doing what he’s doing at the catcher position is really unheard of,” wrote a fan, advocating for Raleigh. Well, the league has witnessed this sort of hitting dominance before. But as a catcher? That’s what makes Raleigh unique. In MLB, catchers don’t win MVP often as their wear-and-tear and defensive duties usually hold them back from eye-popping offensive numbers. But Cal Raleigh’s 2025 season is increasingly MVP-worthy. Earlier, Elston Howard from the Yankees won the MVP, hitting 28 HRs. But that was many decades ago, in 1963.

“Judge is batting almost a .100 higher… they are so in the moment it’s ridiculous! Judge is an all-around better player!” wrote another fan. Well, Judge is currently hitting .361, and he is projected to hit .400 this season. Something last achieved by Ted Williams in 1941. In contrast, Raleigh is hitting at .266, a cool .100 less than Judge. And for the fact, AL MVP will not be selected only on the basis of hitting homers, there’s more to it.

“Judge MVP fatigue has begun,” read a comment. Is it so? Well, Judge has no dearth of awards and accolades, but his MVP run is limited to 2022 and 2024. Yes, competition is always welcome, but MVP fatigue? That doesn’t quite add up.

“If Judge had Raleigh’s stats, I would say he’s having kind of a down year for him,” another netizen chimed in. Aaron Judge’s career average stands at .294, while Raleigh’s 2025 average stands at .266, which is arguably his best year. Per this fan, if Judge had a BA of .266 this year, it would be considered a below-par year for him. Fair enough? Well, numbers speak for themselves.

“I’m a Yankees fan, so I’m a little bit biased, but I think it’s genuinely going to be a tight race. If Cal Raleigh breaks Aaron Judge’s HR record for the AL, then it’s really hard to see him not winning it. However, Judge has the better batting stats overall. It’ll be really close,” added an X user. Now, that’s a good, rational take. Yes, Raleigh has the chance to beat Judge in terms of HR, but in terms of other offensive stats? It’s still Aaron Judge, folks.

After a stellar first half, Judge’s odds have skyrocketed to around. He’s been leading the way in major offensive stats like batting average (.361), hits (121), and key advanced metrics like WAR (6.6), which is also a strong indicator for MVP voting. Nevertheless, it’s going to be an intense battle for the AL MVP, and that’s what makes this entire thing interesting. Let’s now wait and watch who emerges victorious.