Ask most Yankees fans, and you’ll hear the same complaint: the team hasn’t done nearly enough this offseason. Sure, they kept Trent Grisham on a qualifying offer and brought back reliever Pete Blackburn for another year. But is that the kind of headline-grabbing move you were expecting from the Yankees? And after such a disappointing 2025, fans were expecting a major bounce-back winter. So far, it just hasn’t happened.

Still, that lack of big splashes might not be as damaging as it feels. And despite all the frustration, the Yankees are actually being projected to do something this season that many fans probably wouldn’t have seen coming!

“The Yankees are still favored to win the AL East, per the AL season win totals posted by ⁦BetOnline_ag,” MLB insider Bob Nightengale shared via X.

Yes, you read that right. According to BetOnline, the Yankees have a 93% chance of winning the AL East in 2026, which is the highest projection for any team in baseball. And what makes it even more surprising is that the Blue Jays, who made plenty of noise by adding big names like Dylan Cease and Kazuma Okamoto, are still slotted behind New York in second place.

That alone has raised a few eyebrows.

The Yankees, meanwhile, still have plenty on their to-do list before Opening Day. They’re reportedly eyeing a massive deal for Cody Bellinger, and if that falls through, Kyle Tucker is the next big target. On top of that, they’re still looking for another starting pitcher and could definitely use some extra bullpen help. Back in October, all of that felt realistic. With Spring Training creeping closer, though, it’s starting to feel a lot less confident.

That’s why fans are scratching their heads. After the way Toronto humbled the Yankees last season, it’s hard to understand how New York ended up with such a dominant projection.

And if you’re confused, you’re far from alone. Just take a look at social media, where the Bleacher Creatures are clearly stunned by the numbers.

Fans are left stunned by the Yankees’ projection

Are the Yankees armed up enough to win the divisional title? Fans wonder. “I don’t understand this at all. They’re probably the 4th best team in that division as currently constructed,” one fan said. “They are a 3rd-place team as currently constructed,” added another.

In the AL East, the Orioles have added Pete Alonso, while the Blue Jays already have Cease and Okamoto and expect more moves. The Yankees, meanwhile, have largely stood pat, with Grisham their most notable retention. This has led fans to question why teams with stronger offseason upgrades are still projected behind New York. Many believe the projections are driven more by history and the Yankees’ reputation than by current rosters. As one fan put it, “They shouldn’t be. Should be Toronto,” another remarked.

“Must be with the assumption of either resigning Belly or Tucker/Bichette. Otherwise, not sure they have enough firepower,” one user said. We agree with this statement. While the Yankees have still not landed any big names, they are still rumored to have a few. Be it Cody Bellinger, Bo Bichette, or Kyle Tucker, the Yankees are rumored to be in the race. So, hoping to land at least one from these names, the Yankees might have been projected to have a good 2026. However, if it is so, why not the Blue Jays at the top?

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If you remember, despite making a few good moves, the Jays are still rumored to be with all the names mentioned above. “Must be a Yankee fan who runs it. No other explanation,” one fan said. Well, maybe this is the reason behind this projection.

However, when it comes to MLB, we all know how surprises could burst out of nowhere. So, even if the Yankees are not landing enough big names in the offseason, it would be too early to conclude on them now.