The 2021-22 lockout lasted 99 days, and a hard salary cap could stretch this one longer. With ace left-hander Tarik Skubal among the signings teams want done before Dec. 1, Major League Baseball (MLB) is bracing, while Bruce Meyer, interim executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA), could deploy a legal escalation.
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The labor fight could take an explosive turn, with reports surfacing that the MLBPA could dissolve itself as a union during the lockout. In a Wall Street Journal report by Jared Diamond, Gabe Feldman, director of the Tulane Sports Law Program, called the disclaimer of interest “the nuclear option, where you are ending any hope, in the short term at least, of a negotiated settlement.”
Feldman’s blunt phrasing carries weight because disclaiming ends bargaining outright. The MLBPA would become a trade association and give up labor-law protections. The league could also lose the nonstatutory labor exemption, which shields owners from antitrust suits during labor disputes.
Meyer and outside counsel Jeffrey Kessler have guided other unions through this route, and the Curt Flood Act of 1998 opened it to baseball. Owners see the tactic as an overreach.
In the same Wall Street Journal report, Joel Litvin, senior deal partner at Andalusian Sports Advisors and former president of league operations at the National Basketball Association (NBA), argued, “Nowhere in the labor laws did Congress contemplate antitrust litigation being introduced as another weapon in the union’s collective bargaining arsenal.”
Litvin speaks from experience since he ran league operations when NBA players disclaimed in 2011. Owners would likely call any MLB filing a sham and lodge an unfair labor practice charge with the National Labor Relations Board. National Football League (NFL) players fared worse that same year, when the Eighth Circuit reversed their injunction under the Norris-LaGuardia Act. MLB players would likely file in another circuit.
Players see the upside differently. In comments to The Wall Street Journal, Mark Collins, a former NFL cornerback and plaintiff in an early-1990s antitrust lawsuit, explained the leverage this way: “It forces the guys with the money to come to the table.”
Collins’ own case shows why. In 1989, NFL players disbanded their union in 1989 and sued. In 1992, the jury awarded $543,000 in compensatory damages, and treble damages lifted that to $1.63 million. Free agency followed. NBA players settled less than two weeks after disclaiming in 2011.
That leverage matters because the money gap remains wide. The collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires Dec. 1, and MLB’s Nov. 3 offer delays the $258.2 million hard cap and $180.2 million floor until 2028. For 2027, it adds a $1 million minimum salary for players with at least two years of service and $900,000 for players with less than two years of service, and a 30% boost to the pre-arbitration bonus pool.
That gap is why antitrust exposure matters, since damages in a lawsuit can exceed what players might win at the bargaining table and push owners to settle before litigation costs mount.
The MLBPA swiftly rejected the offer and floated a $300 million luxury tax threshold instead. The previous lockout had no cap on the table, but every MLB proposal now hinges on one. The Los Angeles Times reports owners could also declare impasse and impose terms, a move the union could challenge as lacking genuine bargaining.
For now, the disclaimer remains a contingency rather than a filing. Players would likely wait deep into a lockout, and no tribunal has ruled on either side’s conduct, so 2027 hinges on whether talks move before courts become the arena.
Whatever the courts eventually decide, the first damage arrives on a fixed date.
What a Dec. 1 Lockout Freezes Across the Majors
That date is December 1. Once the CBA expires just before midnight Eastern, the lockout begins, and clubs cannot sign major league free agents, complete trades involving 40-man roster players, or hold salary arbitration hearings, according to CBS Sports.
Communication stops as well. Team personnel cannot contact locked-out players, who also lose access to club facilities and medical staff until a new deal is ratified.
That freeze explains the November sprint, since the market could stall for months. Front offices are racing to close marquee deals, much like the $1.7 billion pre-lockout spending spree of late 2021. The Winter Meetings in San Diego are likely to be canceled, which would remove a major trade and signing showcase.
Minor league operations, non-40-man signings and the Jan. 15 international amateur signing period continue unaffected. Only major league business waits on a new CBA, so the transaction wire stays quiet until a deal is ratified.