“Anybody who’s banking on Major League Baseball players cracking, it’s never happened. It’s not going to happen. That’s why we’re the only ones who don’t have a salary cap.” The MLBPA chief, Bruce Meyer, stated this while speaking about a possible salary cap in MLB in June. Since then, neither the players’ union nor the owners have moved from their respective stances. As the current CBA expires on December 1, time is running out. With the MLBPA vehemently against a salary cap, an analyst has warned of a lockout in 2027.

“The MLBPA is not going to accept a salary. It’s just not,” Jeff Passan said, as per All The Smoke on X. “And MLB, right now, the way it’s going, is saying, ‘We want a salary cap, and we will not accept anything otherwise.'”

Major League Baseball remains the only professional sports league in America that does not have a salary cap. With the current CBA about to expire, the team owners are vigorously pushing for a hard salary cap and floor for the 2027 season. The last time the owners really pushed for a salary cap, a 232-day lockout ensued in 1994-95. Due to the lockout, the 1994 World Series was canceled. Passan also highlighted the severity of the 1994 lockout, indicating that history might repeat itself.

“Right now, there’s a system that’s been in place since the inception of the Major League Baseball Players Association and the first collective bargaining agreement, where it is a free market. Not since 1994 have owners tried to implement a salary cap, and the last time that happened, the World Series was lost; it was a disaster. You needed a judge to issue an injunction to get baseball back on the field,” Passan reminded on the show.

Major League Baseball wants to bring competitive balance among teams, as the difference in payrolls between high- and low-market teams has inflated to more than $400 million. While the Cleveland Guardians have the lowest payroll at $70 million, the Dodgers’ payroll sits at approximately $430.8 million, including the luxury tax.

Moreover, with the Dodgers winning back-to-back World Series titles along with Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker on the roster, the league is arguing that the playing field is not equal. Per MLB, the introduction of a salary cap and floor is the only solution.

For the 2027 season, they have proposed a $245.3 million ceiling and  $171.2 million floor. Every team’s payroll must fit within this bracket. Currently, the Opening Day payroll of only 10 baseball teams falls within this category, per MLB.com. Other clubs either have to curb their spending or increase the money they pay.

Apart from the cap and floor, MLB also proposed a guaranteed 50% share of the revenue collected to the players. NFL, NBA, and NHL also follow similar revenue-sharing rules. But the union quickly rejected the idea. Players contend that the proposal would introduce an NBA-like escrow system, reduce the security of guaranteed contracts, and effectively amount to an immediate $500 million reduction in player compensation.

“The owners responded today with a demand for a salary cap system, something generations of players have fought against,” the MLBPA responded. “The last time the owners made such an explicit push for a cap, over 30 years ago, it led to the longest work stoppage in MLB history.

“For generations, our members have fought against cap systems because they harm players at all levels, erode or eliminate contractual guarantees, pit player against player, lead to more work stoppages, not less, and get worse for players over time. Caps don’t lower ticket prices for fans, eliminate tanking or ensure teams are run with equal competence. They suffocate competition by offering owners an all-purpose excuse for inaction and mediocrity.”

Apart from economic changes, the owners are also in favor of bringing changes to free agency. They want to limit deals to five years and $202 million for players who change teams. For those who want to remain with the same club, their contracts cannot exceed 6-year, $265 million.

“One of the common themes in all their proposals is removing player choice, removing player flexibility and removing player empowerment,” Meyer had reportedly said. “Whether that’s amateur, international or major league, that’s been the common theme.”

For the players’ union, the salary cap remains a hard ‘no’ until now. They might have agreed to the league’s other proposals if only the owners backed out of a salary cap. But with both parties holding polar opposite opinions, a lockout appears to be more and more inevitable. They must reach an agreement soon, or the 2027 season will not be the only thing at risk. With the 2028 LA Olympics supposed to include baseball, a conflict at this moment might hamper the preparations.