With the CBA expiring December 1, MLB and the players’ union are headed toward a lockout, and Donald Trump just signaled he won’t help. “Baseball looks like it could have a strike…  But if I could help, I’d love to help.” Trump previously positioned himself as mediator. His deflection now leaves MLB without that ally at a critical moment

The 2021-2022 lockout wiped out 4 months of the season. Now, with the current CBA set to expire on December 1, 2026, and MLB and the MLBPA heading toward a contentious battle over the implementation of a salary cap, another labor shutdown could threaten baseball’s future. Trump could have emerged as an influential voice in the standoff, but his apparent disinterest may leave MLB with one less potential ally just when it needs one most.

“So there’s a looming lockout coming in Major League Baseball, as you know,” a reporter asked Trump on Tuesday. “I think it will. That is going to happen,” Trump responded. But just as the reporter tried to add that two lower-salaried teams will fight it out in this World Series, Trump said, “Okay, let’s do it another time. Nobody cares.”

The blunt response comes as a surprise considering how Trump was always at the front with anything related to MLB. “If you don’t have a salary cap, you don’t have a sport. Because they can’t help themselves. You know, in sports, they can’t help themselves,” Trump said earlier. “They should have done it a long time ago.” It prompted ESPN’s Jeff Passan to predict that Trump may act as a mediator between MLB and MLBPA.

“It’s a possibility just because you’ve got a president who has publicly stated that he thinks baseball should have a salary cap and who likes involving himself in sports,” Passan said. Now that Trump seems not “caring” at all about MLB’s lockout, it’s on Ron Manfred and the MLBPA to sort it out.

MLB proposed a hard cap of $245.3 million and a payroll floor of $171.2 million starting in 2027. The proposal was firmly rejected by MLBPA. MLB contends that massive payroll gaps destroy competitive parity and leave small-market fans “without hope.” The Dodgers’ NLCS loss and the Rays’ AL pennant, teams ranked 28th and 19th in payroll, undermine MLB’s argument.

The massive-spending Dodgers ($339 million+) were cleanly swept in the NLCS by the Milwaukee Brewers, a small-market club ranking 19th in payroll. Meanwhile, the low-budget Tampa Bay Rays clinched the American League. This has resulted in a historic Rays vs. Brewers World Series matchup, proving to the players’ union that meticulous player development and scouting can beat raw spending without a cap.

So, with the MLBPA and MLB yet to come to a consensus ahead of the December 1 deadline, a lockout is visibly near. The Baltimore Orioles’ owner David Rubenstein’s latest statement about MLB team owners earning enough profits may just have worsened the debate.

The Orioles owner’s statement revealed an uncomfortable truth

MLB team owners have historically argued that baseball’s economic landscape is “unsustainable” and unprofitable for small-to-mid-market clubs without a hard salary cap. But Rubenstein blew open the narrative.

“A lot of my friends were buying teams, and I realized they’re making money. They’re making more money than I’m making in private equity,” Rubenstein said.

Rubenstein’s boasting directly contradicts infamous past claims from owners, such as St. Louis Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr., who famously claimed that owning a baseball team “isn’t very profitable.” So, just before the CBA deadline, the MLBPA got leverage with Rubenstein’s statement. Passan is still, though, certain that MLB will have on-field action in 2027, albeit in a much condensed manner.

“We will see baseball in 2027. When will we see baseball? That’s a question that I don’t have the answer to,” Passan noted.

The MLBPA and MLB have their own sets of arguments. But Rubenstein’s statement and Trump’s outright rejection of getting into the matter could affect the negotiations. Positive or negative, time will answer.