For one of the oldest and most successful franchises in the league that won 11 World Series Titles and 23 pennants, to miss their third consecutive playoffs was indeed a massive disgrace.  Expectedly, the ownership knows things need to change, and they signalled a “full-scale reset.” This urgent rebuild puts one man right at the center: Nolan Arenado.

The organization is trying hard to close the book on this failed era by trading Arenado. But that strong desire is crashing into a very hard reality. Analyst Jim Riley of BallCao Sports just explained the situation. Riley believes Nolan Arenado is “going absolutely nowhere.”

Why? Riley puts it very simply. “You’re going to see predictions on players who I think go absolutely nowhere. Players that have a lot of trade talk and speculation that they will be dealt, that I don’t think are going anywhere. And Nolan Aronado is one of them. ” Riley said on his video about offseason trade predictions.  The numbers back him up.

Nolan Arenado is no longer the same player who was once arguably the greatest third baseman of the generation. All of his offensive metrics fell from his MVP-caliber numbers. He has a career batting line of .282/.338/.507, and this season he was batting with just .237/.289/ .377. His OPS fell from .774 in 2023 to .666  in 2025. And his home run power is totally gone, as his combined 28 homers in the last two seasons are less than his 30-homer season in 2022, his best season in St. Louis.

Plus, the 10-time Gold Glove winner is no longer the amazing defender who could hide his hitting slumps. And then comes the $260 million nightmare. When Arenado signed that huge extension with the Rockies, he was a superstar. Now, the Redbirds are stuck trying to move a sub-par player who is still owed $31 million for the 2026-27 combined. “The bat skills are declining. He’s getting older. His defensive metrics are going in the wrong direction, too,” Riley explained. “I literally think the Cardinals would have to eat the entire salary to get him traded. I don’t see him going anywhere.”

This entire situation is a mess.

It is all the Cardinals’ own making

The Cardinals traded for him before the 2021 season, when Arenado’s former team, the Colorado Rockies, agreed to the player’s trade request and agreed to pay a large chunk($51 million) of his salary. Arenado’s 8-year, $260 million contract has an opt-out clause after the 2022 season.

Arenado had a very strong comeback season that year after struggling for the first two seasons in the new team. So the third baseman decided not to exercise his opt-out clause and remained where he was.  At that time, it seemed like a huge victory for St. Louis, but now, that happy decision has become the anchor dragging the franchise down as his performance declined from bad to worse in the next two seasons.

And the sad part is, this is not even new. This offseason is not the first time the team has tried to trade him. The front office worked hard to move him last winter, but they were completely handcuffed by Arenado’s full no-trade clause. He held all the power and gave the team a tiny list of only five teams—the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, and Padres—he would play for.

That time, the Cardinals and the Houston Astros got deep in talks, and reports suggest the two rivals had agreed to a trade. But at the very last second, Arenado vetoed the deal, claiming he wanted more time to think than Houston was willing to provide. This history makes Jim Riley’s prediction look even more accurate.