It’s just his second year in the majors. And Paul Skenes has already become one of the most electrifying names. The Pirates’ flamethrowing right-hander took the league by storm in 2024, earning the NL Rookie of the Year honor and getting the nod as the NL’s All-Star Game starter — a rare feat for a first-year player. His dominance on the mound is well paired with his larger-than-life presence. And with that, the question isn’t IF Skenes will land a massive contract — it’s HOW massive.

According to one MLB insider, the number being floated could shock even the most seasoned baseball observers.

You saw Juan Soto landing a jaw-dropping 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. locking in $500 million from the Blue Jays. And now, seems like it’s time for Paul Skenes! The guy’s been nothing short of electric. In just 30 career starts, he’s rocking a 2.77 ERA, a 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, and a WHIP of 0.939. With these numbers, anyone would score big in free agency. And for Skenes through his 2028 season, suitors might need to break the bank!

“It would be no surprise to see Skenes — the best pitching prospect in a generation — parlay his productivity, age, and marketability into becoming baseball’s first half-billion-dollar pitcher,” suggested MLB insider Jeff Passan.

Passan expects Skenes to touch the $400 million mark from free agency. So, not a half-billion dollar? Well, $400 million might be the minimum mark Skenes is going to hit, with the possibility of hitting the half-billion-dollar range, too.

We have already seen names like Ohtani, Soto, and Guerrero, whose hitting stats made the cash register ring. And this time, one pitcher is projected to do the same. Skenes is expected to command a contract similar to these generational talents. Well, posting less than a 2.00 ERA, Skenes proved his generational talent in his rookie season only!.

Plus, let’s not forget, if he hits the mark, he will be the first pitcher to do so in MLB history. Currently, Zack Wheeler holds the distinction of being the highest-paid pitcher. He signed a three-year, $126 million contract with the Phillies ($42 million AAV). Now, Wheeler is going with a 3.35 ERA, compared to Skenes’ 2.77. And while Wheeler is ahead of Skenes in terms of SOs (66-47), age is not on his side – 34 compared to 22!

Hence, suitors will expectedly offer a long-term contract to Skenes. So, all set for him to be the first pitcher to break the ceiling riding on a bold take of $400 million, AT LEAST! Given he keeps it up…

It will take time for Skenes to achieve the record feat (definitely not before 2028). The MLB’s service time rule states a minimum years of play before hitting free agency. So, we could witness Skenes in free agency only in the 2029 offseason. Until then, the anticipation is expected to keep rising. And questions around the Pirates retaining him are also making their fair share of rounds!

Skenes’ future with the Pirates looks uncertain

It is now clear that Paul Skenes is not hitting free agency right away, but trading? Yes, chances are there!

Currently, the Pirates are standing at the bottom of the NL Central with a 12-24 record. While Skenes are putting in some good numbers, it is not reflecting on the team’s standing. Moreover, a team with such a record has the lowest chance of qualifying for the postseason. So, there are chances that the club will try to trade Skenes at his highest value to add some new names to the roster. And if so, then time is ticking. Because the trade deadline is around the corner.

So, the intention for the Pirates is clear hereon. Either trade Skenes to strengthen the roster, or make a team around him. The number Skenes is currently putting on will surely bring the potential suitors to their knees. Something the Pirates might love to get the best out of it.

And what’s left for the fans?

A team with no postseason history since 2015 and no World Series since 1979. This time, Paul Skenes was the best bet to turn the tables, but the same script is again getting shown. Till the time the team is firing all the cylinders, Skenes individually can’t do any miracles. Now, trading Skenes might be the last resort for the fans to cheer for their team. They can just hope that the Pirates will come with a qualifying offer for Skenes. That’s probably the best thing that can happen for the Pirates.