With a generational talent like Paul Skenes, the Pirates face a $7.2M decision on their ace. It’s a question that has followed the ace since his sensational MLB debut. And now, as another offseason approaches, the speculation is gaining fresh momentum. The Pirates finally took a step forward in 2026, recording their best season since 2019 with 82 wins. Yet, despite Skenes posting a 3.82 ERA across 32 starts, his All-Star status and immense potential remain intact. After all, a rougher season hardly diminishes the value of an arm that recorded a 1.96 ERA across his first 55 starts.
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However, the real challenge for Pittsburgh may not be Skenes’ mound performance. But the price of keeping him there. With his first arbitration-eligible salary for 2027 projected to get tripled, the financial implications could test the Pirates’ willingness to invest in their biggest star.
“Paul Skenes’ salary will be out of the Pirates’ comfort zone after next season. And he will likely be playing somewhere else in 2028,” Punchoutpitch quoted John Perrotto.
MLB Trade Rumors, using Matt Swartz’s arbitration model, projected Skenes’ 2027 salary. He is expected to receive around $7.2 million after earning just north of $1 million in 2026. This figure sits just shy of the record for a first-year arbitration-eligible pitcher, set by Dallas Keuchel at $7.25 million in 2016.
Surely, for a former NL Cy Young winner and ace of Skenes’ caliber, $7.2 million is a steep discount compared to what he would command as a true free agent on the open market. However, for the Pirates, historically known for keeping payrolls low, the numbers suggest this raise will not break their budget.
Moreover, uncertainty surrounding MLB’s 2027 season due to the CBA stalemate could also affect the Pirates’ interest in Paul Skenes. Despite the value around Skenes, the Pirates may be skeptical of offering a cash-rich deal if the 2027 season is not played.
The Pirates have 10 arbitration-eligible players heading into the 2027 season. This includes Oneil Cruz at a projected $6.3 million and Jared Jones at $2.1 million. Combined, the entire 10-player group is projected to cost around $28.6 million to $28.7 million. Hence, for a team with a payroll of $106 million in 2026, splashing such an amount on Skenes means a lot.
Yet the Pirates’ unwillingness to spend on Skenes means a hot pursuit in the upcoming offseason. Note: The Dodgers just missed their third consecutive World Series. So, they may be the ones to go all in for another generational talent.