“I think we’re content with where we are at this point,” the Philadelphia Phillies’ president Dave Dombrowski set the tone for the team’s October dreams before 2026. Yet, a 9-19 start threatened to derail October. But then, the Phillies clawed back, and now they’re fighting for a Wild Card spot. Their October hopes rest on one fragile assumption: their bullpen finally holds.

One stat haunts the Phillies: their bullpen has imploded in each of the last two Octobers. In the 2024 postseason, the Phillies bullpen recorded a 11.37 ERA over 4 games. In the 2025 postseason, their bullpen ERA was 9.98 over 4 games. So, the Phillies’ bullpen ERA has exceeded 9.0 in each of the last two postseasons. This September has been worse.

“If you look at the last two Octobers, an ERA of over eight and a half with five blown saves the last two Octobers, and that’s just in eight games. So, how do you fix it here before October? You pray a lot, and you pray that Zach Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez in games one and two go seven plus each time,” Jim Salisbury said via Foul Territory.

2026 has been no exception in terms of the Phillies’ bullpen struggle.

At a 4.34 ERA, the bullpen has forced Mattingly to scramble for reliable setup options. Late-inning meltdowns have become routine. The most recent example was from their 10-3 loss against the New York Mets.

The Phillies held a 3-1 lead in the fifth inning. However, when starting pitcher Andrew Painter exited the mound after 5.1 innings, the game completely shifted. Brooks Raley entered the game but completely lost control.

He failed to retire a batter, surrendering two walks and two hits. By the time Chase Shugart completed the inning, the Mets had stormed ahead 6-3. Orion Kerkering was brought in to stop the bleeding, but the slump continued.

He suffered a total breakdown, giving up four runs in his single inning of work to push the final deficit to 10-3.

“The bullpen is more than just a conundrum. It is a weakness. In the month of September, third-worst ERA in Major League Baseball at five and a half, and it’s been a struggle all year out there. I mean, the irony is they finally fixed, at the trade deadline last year, finally fixed the closer issue, but many issues leading up to it,” Salisbury wonders.

The Philadelphia Phillies acquired closer Jhoan Durán from the Minnesota Twins at the 2025 MLB trade deadline. They gave up two top prospects, Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait, for that deal. While Duran has been on top of his game, recording a 1.87 ERA with 48 saves as a Philly, and striking out 12.62 hitters per nine innings this season, the rest of the relievers are not what Philadelphia hoped for.

Jonathan Bowlen was supposed to be the bridge to Duran. But on Thursday, he suffered a mild right groin strain while playing against the New York Mets. Even though he is expected to return before the initial playoff series, Caleb Kilian, acquired just this August from the San Francisco Giants, was moved to the 60-day IL with a left oblique strain. Next comes the struggling eighth-inning pitcher Orion Kerkering.

Before the All-Star break, the man posted a 2.43 ERA, but in the second half, it spiked to 7.11. It got so bad that Kerkering blew a 6-inning lead by Andrew Painter and permitted a career-high-tying four runs in a 6-4 loss game against the Baltimore Orioles. Now, he may be optioned to Triple-A. Righty Jonathan Bowlan felt like a hope during his Aug. 1 to 15 stretch, as he recorded a 1.37 ERA, striking out 12.65 hitters per nine innings. But that heat didn’t last long.

After that span, he has allowed 8 runs in 12.2 innings of work and has given up 4 homers. But it seemed like Philadelphia isn’t out of options.

This trade deadline, their main bullpen acquisition was Brooks Raley.

While he had a 1.96 ERA with the Mets, since his move, the southpaw has posted a 6.97 ERA. By now, it feels like a curse.

In a best-of-five Wild Card series, bullpen depth is critical. One bad inning can end a season.

For reference, in the 2022 AL Wild Card series Game 2, the Toronto Blue Jays had an 8-1 lead by the fifth. However, as starter Kevin Gausman exited with two outs and the bases loaded, Tim Mayza allowed a run to score, and then surrendered a towering three-run home run, cutting the Blue Jays’ lead to 8-5.

Anthony Bass then gave up consecutive hits to all three batters he faced. Jordan Romano was brought in for a grueling six-out save but couldn’t halt the bleeding. All three runners scored, tying the game at 9-9.

Romano gave up another run in the ninth to end the game with Toronto losing 10-9.

According to Salisbury, the best way out there for the Phillies is to wish that Cristopher Sanchez and Zach Wheeler pitch a minimum of seven innings in their starts before October. The Phillies can then depend less on their bullpen.

“I think the Phillies are gonna try to stretch out those two big starters and have them be sort of their own bridge to the eighth and ninth inning to Jhoan Duran and probably the setup guy, rookie, untested rookie, Alex McFarlane, who’s done a pretty good job,” Salisbury added.

Sanchez’s 19-6, 2.92 ERA makes him dominant, but stretching him to 7+ innings risks overexposure.

In his last start, he was pulled out of the game in the seventh inning by Don Mattingly. The decision was purely a strategic gameplay move, considering he threw 98 pitches. So, keeping him for seven innings before October will be a risky move.

Wheeler’s 2.99 ERA means he can also continue till late, but he recently underwent thoracic outlet decompression surgery.

Duran can be a solid bridge as he pitched 3.2 innings last postseason without allowing any runs.

McFarlane (2.35 ERA) is a breakout, but he’s a starter. Coming straight from AA, he has recorded a 2.45 ERA in 14.2 innings of work. His one most notable lapse in the season was a three-run shot off Ronald Acuña Jr. Other than that, McFarlane has been pretty solid.

Duran, McFarlane, Wheeler, and Sanchez together offer limited depth, which is why Salisbury’s advice boils down to prayer. But there is one more option.

José Alvarado.

Since the All-Star break, he boasts a 2.82 ERA. Per Baseball Savant, the man ranks in the 96th percentile with a 29.8% hard-hit rate. His season ERA currently stands at 5.20, but he has an xERA of 3.91, reflecting a fairly unlucky campaign.

The Phillies’ win Sunday dropped their magic number to three for a Wild Card berth. Because the Phillies (86-70) lead the Arizona Diamondbacks (82-74) by 4.0 games with only 6 games remaining on the schedule, 2 Phillies wins and 1 Arizona loss will officially send Philadelphia to the playoffs.

In a best-of-five Wild Card series, bullpen depth is critical. One bad inning can end a season.

Maths are clear. It is just their pitching down the innings, which looks scarier. If the bullpen repeats its postseason pattern, even a strong rotation may not be enough to advance.