Once seen as a potential trade chip given the club’s crowded outfield and pressing need for pitching, Jarren Duran’s name has surfaced frequently in conversations across the league. Now, as the MLB trade deadline looms, recent developments suggest a surprising shift in Boston’s stance.

Even when presented with a prime trade target, the Red Sox front office chose to hold firm. Now, that decision sends a clear message: Taking Duran away from Boston won’t come easily. This unexpected show of loyalty, despite roster depth in the outfield and a glaring need for a reliable arm, hints at a deeper strategic vision. One that places significant value on Duran’s role in the team’s present and future plans.

“The Padres, in their never-ending quest to acquire Duran, proposed a package involving Cease, catching prospect Ethan Salas, and another prospect for Duran, which was quickly rejected.” Sean McAdam of MassLive reported that the Red Sox have rejected the deal involving Dylan Cease, even though he was on the team’s radar for a long time.

Well, Jarren Duran is currently slashing .254/.321/.428 with 9 home runs, 52 RBIs, 10 triples, 16 steals, and he has scored 56 runs in 414 at-bats. And so, more than Cease, it’s about Duran.

The Red Sox might ask for a lot more if teams want to land Jarren Duran. They aren’t going to settle for a package built around a rental starting pitcher, a struggling catching prospect, and a throw-in.

And this all comes amid the Red Sox CBO Craig Breslow’s recent remark about the trade deadline. “At this moment, the Red Sox are not inclined to engage in any large-scale deadline moves,” MLB insider Jeff Passan quoted Breslow. Notably, Duran still has 3 years under club control. So, the Red Sox can take time to trade Duran when he is at his peak. Most preferably during the offseason, when there will be no budgetary constraints for the suitors.

But Ethan Salas doesn’t seem like an apt trade piece, even though he is considered one of the top catching prospects according to MLB Pipeline. He was also the No. 1 international prospect in 2023, landing a $5.6 million signing bonus. While he’s highly regarded defensively and in terms of potential, there might be some concerns. So far, he owns a career .221 BA with a .305 OBP and a .347 slugging percentage over 800 minor league plate appearances. And this season in Double-A San Antonio, he’s hitting just .188. Not enough for the Red Sox to trade him for Duran.

And for Cease? Well, he is a key target for Boston. But with his current struggle (4.59 ERA from 21 starts), the Red Sox don’t seem interested in trading Duran for him. Moreover, Cease is on an expiring contract, and if the Red Sox proceed with Alex Bregman for a qualifying offer, he might hit free agency. Hence, a losing cause for Boston here.

Now, this is a major red flag for the Padres. They are getting aggressive in trade, considering their limited $210 million payroll. The projected $200 million value for Cease in the upcoming free agency would be detrimental for the Padres to continue with him.

Meanwhile, talking about the Red Sox, they could trade Duran amid their crowd of outfielders, but only if they find enough value. There’s no urgency for the Red Sox here.

The Dodgers might have a hand in the Red Sox’s trade deflection

Recently, most of the talk around Boston’s needs has focused on starting pitching, the bullpen, and first base. But here, we might have missed a point, and that’s the need for a catcher. Reportedly, rookie Carlos Narvaez is handling the biggest workload of his career. And backup Connor Wong hasn’t offered much with the bat for the Red Sox (1 RBI this season with a 0-for-30 record). Hence, exploring a catcher from the trade might also be on the cards for the Red Sox!

And here comes the Dodgers…

“According to one source with some knowledge of the matter, the Red Sox’s interest is centered around L.A. catcher Dalton Rushing,” McAdam confirmed the speculation. And the Dodgers’ response?

“Intriguingly, the Dodgers recently sent a second scouting supervisor to double up the organization’s coverage at Greenville, which could be a sign of advancing talks between the teams,” McAdam added.

So, if the Red Sox do end up trading for Rushing, he’d probably stay in a backup role for now. Especially with Narvaez unexpectedly stepping up (two-run HR in the 11th inning against the Phillies on Wednesday). But it would surely come as a good backup for the team, considering Boston is still eyeing the postseason.

So, while the trade between the Padres and Red Sox might be stalling, a new equation is brewing in the backdrop. And surprisingly, this doesn’t involve the top rumored name from the Red Sox’s camp. We think that’s a win-win situation for the team. They have enough time to trade Duran in the offseason when the suitors will have a higher budget.