The Yankees’ chances of making the playoffs are very slim after Aaron Boone made some critical decisions that gave the Boston Red Sox a big edge in their AL Wild Card series. As Brayan Bello gets ready to pitch against New York, the numbers tell a very interesting story. Bello had an 11-9 record and a 3.35 ERA this season, but against the Yankees, he has been great, going 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in three starts. He has a career 1.44 ERA at Yankee Stadium in four games, which is even more impressive. As this young pitcher gets ready to throw a knockout punch, veteran Red Sox pitcher Matt Barnes has given him some very important advice that could change the course of the series.

Boston’s 3-1 win in Game 1 showed a big difference in how the two teams’ managers think. Alex Cora, the Red Sox manager, trusted ace Garrett Crochet to throw a career-high 117 pitches, even though he had two outs in the eighth inning. Boone, on the other hand, pulled Max Fried after just 99 pitches, even though the left-hander was pitching well. Fried had pitched seven innings perfectly, getting Jarren Duran out to start the seventh. Duran was 0-for-12 against him at that point. The choice went horribly wrong when reliever Luke Weaver walked Ceddanne Rafaela after an 11-pitch battle. He then gave up a double to Nick Sogard and a two-run single to Masataka Yoshida without getting an out.

Barnes pulled no punches in his message to Bello ahead of Game 2. “He’s got to trust who he is,” Barnes said, emphasizing the mental battle ahead. “In a first postseason start, the adrenaline’s going to be high. He’s going to be going crazy, and he’s going to be amped up, but I think he’s got to talk to maybe some of the guys, talk to Crochet.” The veteran reliever stressed a critical advantage: “They’re already up one-nothing. And I can’t stress that enough for a guy coming into a situation like this, he’s got some room to work with.”

Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote about how big Boone’s mistake was and how it showed a disconnect between management. “Everyone’s going to question Aaron Boone’s wisdom in when he took Max Fried out of this game,” Sherman stated. He pointed to the glaring contrast: “Alex Cora let his ace, Garrett Crochet, go to a career-high 117 pitches. It got him into two outs in the eighth and able to hand off directly to his closer, Chapman.”

Sherman emphasized Crochet’s dominance, noting, “he trusted a guy who on his final pitch of the game threw the hardest pitch of this game. Garrett Crochet 100.2 miles per hour to freeze Austin Wells with a runner on.” The message was simple: “When you have an ace, you’ve got to ride your ace at this time of year. Protect your bullpen for maybe other guys.” Boone’s conservative approach showed off the Yankees’ weak bullpen, which had a 4.37 ERA, the worst in baseball.

The Yankees are now on the verge of being eliminated, and the man who has been a thorn in their side all season is the one who is standing in their way.

Red Sox’s Bello’s Moment of Truth Arrives at Yankee Stadium

Boone’s mistakes put New York in a tough spot, but Brayan Bello has the upper hand on Wednesday night. The 26-year-old right-hander is getting ready for the biggest start of his career. If he wins, the Yankees will be out of the playoffs, and the Boston Red Sox will go to the ALDS. Most young pitchers would crack under the pressure, but Bello loves it.

“Obviously super happy for the opportunity to start the game [Wednesday] here, to be the No. 2 starter,” Bello said Tuesday through his translator. “I have been throwing a lot of big games here, but I feel like this one is going to be different.” Different indeed, yet the numbers suggest Bello should feel right at home.

In five starts at Yankee Stadium, he has been almost impossible to hit, going 3-1 with a 1.44 ERA and a 0.957 WHIP. His August 22 clinic is the model: seven shutout innings, three hits allowed, and a 1-0 win for Boston. That performance made clear what Yankees hitters have learned the hard way this season: Bello owns them. He struck out 17 batters over 19 innings, and New York only hit .172 against him.

On Wednesday, Bello doesn’t have to change who he is for Boston. They need the pitcher who got the No. 2 starter spot behind Crochet, who has an 11-9 record and a 3.35 ERA. Carlos Rodon, who had a terrible 5.74 ERA against Boston this year, will be his opponent. History is also on Boston’s side: every Game 1 winner since 2022 has gone on to win in this wild-card format.