As Venezuela upsets Japan in the WBC quarterfinal, it not only makes them secure a semifinal spot after 2009 but also secures them a spot in LA28 for the first time. But for Japan, the situation is grim. For the first time in WBC history, Shohei Ohtani’s squad failed to secure a semifinal berth. Moreover, the 2023 WBC winner is yet to secure their Olympic spot. They need to go through a few equations now to secure their Olympic berth.

“To reiterate, unless we achieve the top spot in Asia at the 2027 Premier12, we won’t secure a spot in the LA Olympics (one Asian slot available). Since the previous champions were Taiwan, to claim the top spot in Asia, we absolutely must win the tournament,” NPB_Umpire Scorecard shared via X.

There are a total of six teams eligible to compete in the 2028 Olympics. For the American teams, the ongoing WBC acts as the qualifier. For the other teams, there will be tournaments like the 2027 Premier12 (Asia) and the 2027 Premier12 (Europe/Oceania). 1 team from the Asian region and 1 from the European/Oceanian region would secure LA28 spots. Lastly, there will be a final event among the top two teams from each regional Premier12 for the final sixth spot.

So, even if Japan had won against Venezuela, their Olympic spot would still have dwindled. For Shohei Ohtani, who dreamt about playing in the Olympics back in 2024, this comes as a shock. “I’d like to play in the Olympics,” Ohtani admitted in 2024. “Also, knowing the fact that there will be non-baseball fans watching the games as well, I think it would be really good for the baseball industry.”

Here comes the equation to keep Ohtani’s dream alive. For Japan to secure their Olympics spot, they now need to win the Premier12 event for Asia. Even the second spot would not help because Taiwan is the last winner from the Asian region. So, to secure the single spot from Asia, Japan needs to win the Premier12.

In contrast, the American qualification scenario is sorted. Team USA is confirmed as the host nation. The Dominican Republic secured its spot after entering the semifinals. Venezuela took away the last spot by winning the quarterfinals. So, American countries are secured for the LA28. The fight is now among the European and Asian regions to secure the remaining 3 spots.

Since baseball’s entry in the Olympics in 1992, Japan has won a total of four Olympic medals. Most recently, they won Gold in the Tokyo Games in 2020. And as baseball was dropped from the 2024 Paris Olympics, Japan is still the reigning Gold winner in Olympic baseball. Shohei Ohtani, though, is yet to win an Olympic medal.

Hence, not securing a spot for LA28 couldn’t be the desired outcome.

Shohei Ohtani highlighted a few positive takeaways for Japan

Despite the loss, the Japanese fans still have a few positive points to take from the WBC. Japan played a total of 4 games in the pool play round and 1 in the quarterfinals. And in these 5 total WBC games, a few Japanese names have already caught the eyes with their performance.

The first name is Hiromi Itoh. The right-handed pitcher is the reigning Sawamura Award winner, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award, and he proved that in the WBC. He allowed two runs with six SOs and no walks over three innings in the 8-6 win against Korea. With his fastballs that touch 96 mph, along with some sleek splitters, wait for the MLB suitors to get behind him.

Even Shohei Ohtani seems impressed with Japan’s pitching staff. “I have no feelings of dissatisfaction regarding not being able to pitch in the WBC,” Ohtani said just before the quarterfinals. “I want to do the job that I can do. Even without me pitching, Team Japan has wonderful pitchers.”

Teruaki Sato is another Japanese name that also caught the limelight for his power-hitting. This WBC, he went 2-for-6 with two doubles, a walk, and an RBI from 4 appearances. Sato even took out Blake Snell for a homer last year in an exhibition game. So, maybe Japan could proceed further in the WBC, but brace up for a few more Japanese onslaughts in MLB by next offseason.