Shohei Ohtani’s first year with the Los Angeles Dodgers was nothing short of spectacular! He broke records of legends, opened the 50-50 club, and etched his name in history. And as if that’s not enough, he ended the season with a championship ring to his name. Plus, no one can forget he clenched his third MVP award, with his decoy and wife Tanaka by his side—no big deal, right? Plus, he has even announced that he and Tanaka are expecting their first child. But the thing that will be hard to gulp is he wasn’t even at his 100% this season.

Yes, even after all those strides he took, he didn’t pitch all season. This is because he underwent UCL surgery in 2023. But just as his year was all great news, mostly another good news is Ohtani is going to be pitching again in 2025. Fans were waiting for this moment for a hot minute. But wait, not everyone is convinced it’s going to be smooth sailing for Ohtani. Baseball Doesn’t Exist, a popular X account, recently cast doubt on Ohtani’s comeback. Pointing out several instances from MLB history doesn’t exactly favor pitchers returning from such injuries.

Can Shohei Ohtani beat the curse of Tommy John?

According to Baseball Doesn’t Exist, the odds of Ohtani dominating as a pitcher, a two-way sensation, are EXTREMELY unlikely. In a thread, they pointed out the odds that Ohtani is facing after having undergone his second Tommy John surgery. Out of 101 MLB pitchers who had the surgery, 25% never pitched in the majors again. And of the 42 pitchers in Ohtani’s age group from 27 to 31 who have gone through UCL surgery, only six have gotten more than 1 WAR after. And that’s just 14.3%, not a great number.

Now if Shohei Ohtani wants to remain the two-way player as he wants, he needs to pitch for nine more seasons. But for those who have returned from the surgery, the career span at most is just three seasons. And for the starting pitchers, the odds are even tighter. The longest career one had was John Farrell, who pitched for four seasons and just threw 114.2 innings with a 7.77 ERA. Now Walker Buehler and Hyun Jin Ryu, too, got second Tommy John, and both struggled. Ryu, in fact, even returned to Korea. But then, there is Nathan Eovaldi, who, even after a second surgery, got a solid 13.5.

And Ohtani’s real hope, though, lies in a new procedure developed by Jeff Dugus. It uses an internal brace to reattach ligaments; it’s an innovative approach, and it gives Ohtani a chance to pitch longer and also recover faster. But the effectiveness still isn’t much known.

Ohtani’s spotted pitching in a school

The Los Angeles Dodgers star wants’ nothing more than getting back to pitching. Taking a step further in his recovery journey, he was seen engaging in a light pitching session at a local high school in Los Angeles. It’s a hopeful milestone at this point in his rehab. But even then manager Dave Roberts isn’t wanting to rush through the process.

Dave Roberts is cautious, even though the spring training is right around the corner. He made it clear that Ohtani won’t be pitching until it’s May. He shared in an interview with Japanese media Hochi News that the plan is to hold Ohtani off the mound until May. “We will persuade him with the help of doctors and trainers,” clearly acknowledging Ohtani’s impatience to make it back.

But while the three-time MVP wants to be back, so do the fans; the focus of the team is to avoid unnecessary risks in the recovery process. However, Robert did confirm that even though Ohtani did get shoulder surgery after he injured himself in the World Series, he would be ready by Opening Day. Now with Blake Snell and possibly Roki Sasaki on the team, the LA Dodgers don’t seem in a rush to get Ohtani pitching as quickly.

Do you want the two-way player to be 100% soon, or would you rather wait? Let us know in the comments.