Tarik Skubal, the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner, has posted a 2.47 ERA across 103 starts since 2023, making him one of the biggest names in the upcoming free-agent market. New York Mets owner Steve Cohen has the financial flexibility to pursue the left-hander, and ESPN analyst Alden Gonzalez believes his desire to land Skubal could influence this race.
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“The Mets really, really, really need Tarik Skubal,” ESPN analyst Alden Gonzalez said on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight podcast. “The Dodgers really don’t. They could certainly gain from signing him, but are they going to want him as badly as Steve Cohen is going to want him?”
The need gap is easy to measure. The Mets missed the playoffs for a second straight year and have not won a World Series since 1986. The Los Angeles Dodgers, who reached the National League Championship Series with Skubal, carry roughly $388 million in 2027 commitments. One club needs an ace, the other wants one.
Money is no obstacle either. The Mets owe about $281 million for 2027, per Cot’s Contracts, but only $192 million in 2028. Pitchers Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga and infielder Jorge Polanco, worth $57 million combined, also leave the books after next season.
The hesitation sits elsewhere. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has never given a starter a major commitment, per MLB.com. Young arms Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton give Skubal a rotation worth joining.
In a report for ESPN, MLB insider Jeff Passan pointed to the timeline. “Skubal is far and away the best player in this class, and the expectation is he will sign before the Dec. 1 lockout.”
The résumé backs up that praise. Skubal won back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards with ERAs of 2.39 and 2.21, then posted a 2.72 ERA with 186 strikeouts across 26 starts in 2026 despite missing six weeks and a deadline trade to the Dodgers.
That deadline carries weight. The collective bargaining agreement expires next month, and agent Scott Boras wants a deal before a lockout. SNY floated roughly $350 million over eight years, which would top Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million pitcher record.
In an interview with MLB.com reporter Sonja Chen, Skubal declined to discuss free agency after the playoff exit. “I’m not going to comment on my future really at all. Today sucks, you know, and that’s kind of where my head’s at.”
His mood makes sense. Skubal threw five innings of two-run ball in the National League Championship Series loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Boras prefers silence and lets teams bid against each other, with early chatter floating 10 years and $500 million.
The New York Yankees also rank among the suitors capable of meeting that price, so the Mets’ need alone will not settle this chase.
Contract talk only matters if the pitcher justifies it, and the underlying numbers make that case on their own.
Why Tarik Skubal’s arsenal would reshape any rotation he joins
Any suitor would be buying a very specific skill set. His four-seam fastball averaged 96.8 mph in 2026, and his walk rate still ranked in the 99th percentile. Power arms rarely arrive with that kind of control, and fewer sustain it.
The changeup does the heaviest lifting. Hitters whiffed on 46.9 percent of their swings against it, and no Skubal pitch allowed a slugging percentage above .373. His overall pitching run value landed in the 97th percentile, backing a 155 ERA+ and 5.2 fWAR.
Command keeps the profile steady. Skubal has held a walk rate of 1.6 per nine innings or lower in each of the last four seasons, and a 2.51 FIP suggests his 2026 results were no mirage despite six weeks lost to elbow surgery.
Durability remains the lone real caution. Skubal underwent Tommy John surgery in college in 2017 and flexor tendon surgery in August 2022, so another major elbow procedure would complicate any decade-long commitment. For now, the underlying metrics offer little reason for alarm.