The Dodgers may already know what it takes to win with Tarik Skubal, but the New York Mets have a bigger reason to pursue him. After a disappointing 2026 season exposed their rotation problems, New York needs an established ace. Now, Steve Cohen could give them the financial advantage to land baseball’s biggest free agent.

“I do favor the Mets at this point; I’m not exactly sure where the Dodgers are gonna go. Worked out great for both parties. He loved it there; they loved him. But they’re not in the desperation kind of mode that the Mets are in to get better,” said Jon Heyman on MLB Network.

The New York Mets are increasingly viewed as favorites to sign Tarik Skubal this offseason. Other than Heyman, ESPN’s Jorge Castillo reached the same conclusion, pointing to 2 clear advantages for New York. The Mets need an elite starter, and few teams are as willing to spend. Those reasons have pushed New York ahead of the Dodgers in early industry discussions. Skubal is baseball’s top free agent after another dominant 2026 season on the mound.

The 2-time Cy Young winner finished 2026 with a 2.72 ERA across 26 starts. His 186 strikeouts, 158.2 innings, and 0.96 WHIP further explain why teams want him. However, the Mets have a more urgent reason to pursue him than Los Angeles. The Mets finished 74-88, last in the NL East, with rotation problems throughout 2026. Mets starters posted a 4.47 ERA, ranking 23rd among 30 MLB rotations in 2026. They managed only 791 innings, ranking 22nd and forcing frequent bullpen work all season. Their 4.18 FIP ranked 15th, while their 10.4 FanGraphs WAR tied for 18th overall.

Nolan McLean impressed with a 3.16 ERA across 31 starts, but support remained inconsistent. Sean Manaea posted a 4.78 ERA, Freddy Peralta 4.99, and David Peterson reached 6.09. Kodai Senga struggled, posting a 10.08 ERA across his first 7 starts in 2026. Skubal would give that group a proven ace capable of taking the ball regularly. His 2.72 ERA and 186 strikeouts show the level of upgrade the Mets need.

The Dodgers also value him, especially after his successful 10-start run in Los Angeles. He recorded a 2.61 ERA there, showing how comfortably he fit into their rotation. Still, Los Angeles has less pressure to rebuild its starting staff this winter.

Money gives the Mets another important advantage, although the Dodgers remain capable big spenders. Owner Steve Cohen has repeatedly shown willingness to pursue baseball’s biggest names. The clearest comparison came in December 2023, when both clubs aggressively pursued Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Mets offered 12 years and $325 million, matching the Dodgers’ reported initial guarantee. The Dodgers ultimately signed Yamamoto, adding a $50 million bonus and another opt-out clause.

That result shows the New York Mets can compete financially, but the Dodgers can still win bids. This time, Skubal’s contract could test both organizations even more seriously before December arrives.

One industry survey placed his projected deal at 8 years and $355 million. Several estimates fell between $325 million and $400 million over 7 to 10 years. A seven-year, $300 million contract is another projection, not a confirmed asking price yet. Reports suggest the Dodgers could prefer shorter terms with a higher annual salary instead. Their recent four-year, $240 million Kyle Tucker contract offers one possible comparison for Skubal.

Skubal, represented by Scott Boras, may instead prioritize a longer guaranteed deal over annual salary. The Mets appear more prepared to offer those years, given their rotation needs this offseason. The Dodgers cannot be ruled out, but the Mets currently have the clearer case.

Do the Dodgers really need Tarik Skubal?

Tarik Skubal has praised the Dodgers, but whether they reunite remains uncertain this offseason. After Los Angeles fell in the NLCS, he praised the organization, teammates, and fanbase.

“Incredible organization, incredible teammates, incredible fanbase,” Skubal said after the Dodgers’ NLCS elimination.

He also said he felt honored wearing the Los Angeles uniform during his short stay. Those comments suggest he enjoyed his time there, although they reveal no free-agent preference.

The Dodgers have also shown their appreciation through their trade and public comments. At the deadline, Los Angeles surrendered Zyhir Hope, River Ryan and Brady Smith for Skubal. Hope ranked No. 26 overall, Ryan No. 64, while Smith ranked Detroit’s No. 9 prospect. President Andrew Friedman praised Skubal’s smooth transition, including his impact inside the clubhouse. Friedman said the Dodgers would keep speaking with agent Scott Boras, while respecting Skubal’s choice.

Still, the Dodgers do not enter this offseason desperate for another starting pitcher right now. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki and Shohei Ohtani headline their rotation. Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski and Landon Knack provide further options next season. Their farm system features Christian Zazueta, Adam Serwinowski and Jackson Ferris among its promising pitchers. All 3 prospects face Rule 5 eligibility unless added to the 40-man roster.

However, the Dodgers’ depth has not always held up when injuries tested their rotation. Snell and Glasnow combined for just 22 starts during the 2026 regular season alone. Ohtani’s workload may also need careful management to preserve his two-way value throughout October. With Ohtani included, Sheehan, Wrobleski and Stone remain candidates for the sixth starting spot. Skubal could join Yamamoto, Snell and Glasnow, giving Los Angeles a proven option when injuries strike.

Even so, Los Angeles could manage without Skubal, unlike teams facing greater rotation needs. The Mets have emerged as serious contenders because their rotation needs a major upgrade. Jon Heyman favoured New York, saying its urgency exceeds the Dodgers’ need to improve. Steve Cohen could help the Mets pursue the record-setting contract Skubal is expected to command.

For the Dodgers, interest is clear, but their final decision may ultimately come down to money.