The Tigers and Tarik Skubal are proceeding toward a salary arbitration hearing that’s already making history. And the gap between the two sides is the largest the process has ever seen. Reportedly, Detroit submitted a figure of $19 million, while Skubal’s camp came in at $32 million, a staggering $13 million difference!

That kind of spread would usually make any arbitration prediction shaky, especially given how unpredictable the system is. If you remember, MLB arbitration has a long reputation for surprise outcomes and bruised relationships. Remember Josh Donaldson’s case with the Blue Jays in 2018? A relatively modest $1.3 million gap still caused lasting damage and ultimately preceded his trade out of Toronto.

And yet, despite all that, ESPN’s Jeff Passan has already gone on record predicting Skubal will win his case.

“And in a world where lesser pitchers get $30 million-plus a season, and Skubal can compare his salary to any in MLB, his performance — the best pitcher in baseball — will be enough to carry the day,” Passan said.

Well, it’s almost impossible to make a straight-faced argument that Tarik Skubal is only worth $19 million. That too, after winning back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards. At this point, he has a very real case as the best pitcher on the planet. That alone strengthens his claim that he should be paid like one this offseason.

And guess what, Skubal won’t need much help making his case in front of the three-person arbitration panel as his performance does the talking. His 2025 season was flat-out elite, as he led the AL in ERA (2.21), WHIP (0.89), and WAR (6.5). So, Skubal’s camp would argue about how “the best pitcher on the planet” deserves more than the Tigers’ $19 million figure.

There’s also an important procedural factor working in Skubal’s favor. With more than five years of MLB service time, he isn’t limited to arbitration-only comparables.

That opens the door for his agent, Scott Boras, to point to top-of-the-market free-agent deals. For instance, Zack Wheeler’s $42 million per year or Gerrit Cole’s $36 million are benchmarks for what elite pitching actually costs.

For context, Wheeler is carrying a 2.71 ERA in 2025. This only fuels the argument that Skubal has a legitimate case to push past the $30 million mark. All signs point to Skubal potentially getting very close to what he’s asking for.

However, the bigger question is what comes next. Even if Skubal wins the hearing, will the Tigers and their ace still be aligned on a long-term future? History suggests arbitration battles like this can leave scars, and in this case, the ground already feels shaky.

The Tigers are already arming up their squad around Tarik Skubal

While there’s still plenty of uncertainty surrounding Tarik Skubal’s long-term future in Detroit, the Tigers’ offseason moves suggest they may be thinking bigger picture. Everything they’ve done so far points to an effort to build a roster capable of competing around Skubal in 2026.

Reportedly, MLB insider Jon Heyman said that Lucas Giolito and Chris Bassitt are both firmly on the Tigers’ radar. He reported that each was strongly connected to Detroit at various points. The club has already added Drew Anderson and retained Jack Flaherty. They still have Casey Mize and Reese Olson lined up behind Skubal in the rotation.

So, if the Tigers can add one or two more arms, the rotation suddenly looks deep, stable, and built to contend.

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Now, even if the arbitration process strains the relationship in the short term, a stronger roster and a legitimate push in 2026 could change the conversation entirely. Winning has a way of smoothing things over! And it might ultimately convince both Skubal and the Tigers that a long-term partnership still makes sense.