Detroit started the season with hopes of winning the championship and a big financial commitment to their star shortstop. The Tigers came in seventh overall with an 86.9% optimism score. This was thanks to their ace pitcher, Tarik Skubal’s rise to fame, and a huge $140 million investment in their key player. What happened next was one of the worst collapses in baseball history, turning hope into heartbreak.

Javier Báez is the $140 million man. His six-year deal made him and Skubal the two most important players in Detroit’s rebuild. Báez’s selection to the All-Star Game seemed to prove the Tigers right, as he had only been playing center field for two months. The group thought they had put together the pieces for a playoff run, with Báez being the key to their hopes of winning the championship.

Reality hit hard. Since the All-Star break, Báez has had a terrible .205/.213/.288 slash line and an OPS+ of only 38, which is the worst in the American League. Jayson Stark of The Athletic said, “Perennial LVP candidate Javy has turned into reality right before our eyes,” referring to how he went from being an All-Star starter to a possible Least Valuable Player candidate. Stats tell a terrible story: in more than two months, he hit one home run and four doubles, struck out 40 times, and walked only once. His road slash line was .176/.184/.203. His last walk was on August 24, 25 games ago, and his last walk before that was on June 24. This means he struck out 51 times and walked once, which is hard to believe.

The Tigers’ collapse is similar to Báez’s decline, as their preseason optimism fell from 86.9% to just 9.2% by the end of the season, according to The Athletic’s “Hope-O-Meter” fan poll. This drop of 77.7 percentage points is one of the biggest in recent memory, and analysts say it could lead to “the worst collapse of all time” for Detroit. The team that came in with dreams of winning the World Series now has to face the harsh truth of lost opportunities and broken promises.

But baseball’s cruel twist of fate means that hope won’t die completely. Even though Báez’s historic struggles were ruining Detroit’s season, the Tigers are still in the running for the playoffs, holding on to mathematical possibilities that seemed impossible just a few weeks ago.

Tigers fight for playoff life despite season-long struggles

The Detroit Tigers still have hope for the playoffs, even though Báez had a meltdown and they were very disappointed. Detroit is tied with Cleveland for the AL Central title at 86–74, but their problems all season have made them weak when it counts.

Cleveland is in charge of the division race and only needs to win two more games to win the Central Division again. The Guardians beat Detroit 8-5 in their season series, which was very important because it gave the Tigers the tiebreaker that puts them in second place, even though they have the same record as Cleveland. If Detroit loses to Boston on Saturday and Cleveland beats Texas that night, Detroit could be out of the playoffs.

For Detroit, the math is still very easy. One loss in the afternoon and one win in the evening for Cleveland end their hopes of winning the division right away. The Tigers still have a chance to win the wild card, though. They are just one game ahead of Houston for the last playoff spot in the American League.

Detroit’s chances of making the playoffs are very slim, but they still have control over their October fate. Houston’s loss to the Angels on Friday gives the Tigers a big cushion. They only need one good thing to happen—either they win or the Astros lose—to get into the playoffs and make up for their rough season