The Dodgers have dominated free agency for years. This offseason, they may be watching from the sidelines. For the first time in years, the Dodgers’ checkbook may not be enough. Tarik Skubal is the name everyone wants, with his projected $400 million payday potentially eclipsing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million deal as the benchmark for elite pitching contracts. Having spent the second half of 2026 with the Dodgers, Skubal has already shown an openness to staying in Los Angeles, making a reunion seem like the obvious outcome.

Yet, in a surprising twist, MLB analysts believe the Blue Jays, Padres, and Mets could all have the upper hand in the race. For a franchise accustomed to dominating the market, the possibility of watching rivals move ahead for its biggest target adds a new layer of intrigue to an already expensive offseason.

“If I’m going to power rank those four suitors that we mentioned, Padres, Jays, the Mets, and the Dodgers, as I forgot one of them, the Los Angeles Dodgers are fourth on that list,” analyst Ben Stevens explained the Dodgers’ reluctance on 97.1 The Fan. “Really? Because they have the money to do so, but I don’t think they want the long-term investment. That would be a 10-year, $400 million deal. I think they would pay a 5-year, $200 million deal. But if Skubal is trying to break the overall record, that is Yoshi’s $325 million. I don’t think the Dodgers have the palate to pay that long-term deal currently.” Conversation between Stevens and Cody Decker via 97.1 The Fan puts the Dodgers in an unlikely situation.

Reportedly, a long-term offer is not currently on the table from Los Angeles. The Dodgers want a shorter deal with a massive annual salary, whereas Skubal’s agent Scott Boras is pushing for maximum years before MLB’s Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1.

Unlike their competitors, the Dodgers do not desperately need starting pitching. Los Angeles already has Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki under contract, leading the front office to take a passive, “hanging around the backboard” approach.

Moreover, with MLB owners pushing for potential hard salary caps and contract limits in 2027, the Dodgers are hesitant to hand out another mega-deal on top of their massive existing payroll.

“The Padres look like a big threat to the Mets for superstar free agent left-hander Tarik Skubal,” Jon Heyman said. “While the Mets are perhaps considered the favorite for Skubal due to Steve Cohen’s largesse, the Padres are an interesting wild card in the derby. Their new owners, Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones, are ‘very committed’ to winning, Padres GM A.J. Preller said.”

Ranked second in Heyman’s odds at 4-to-1 (ahead of LA’s 5-to-1), San Diego is desperate for innings after losing multiple starters to free agency and can still offer Skubal his preferred West Coast proximity to his home in Arizona.

For the Mets, their owner, Steve Cohen, has the deepest pockets in baseball and is willing to eclipse Yamamoto’s $325 million benchmark to anchor a thin rotation. On the other hand, following a disappointing 79-83 season and with Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber hitting free agency, Toronto has an urgent rotation void. Also, the Blue Jays have a recent track record of offering 10-year mega-contracts to top stars and are eager to outbid Los Angeles.

Lastly, the Dodgers may not be at their typical aggressiveness this time owing to their owner Mark Walter’s legal turmoil. Walter’s recent moves to offload stakes in the Lakers and Chelsea FC suggest he may be less aggressive in the free-agent market.

With billions still deferred in the Dodgers, Walter may not be desperate enough this time to splash for Skubal. But the Dodgers remain a threat if Skubal accepts a shorter-term, high-AAV structure.

Skubal spent the final two months of the 2026 season in Los Angeles, posting a 2.61 ERA over 10 regular-season starts and praising the organization. General Manager Brandon Gomes has also confirmed that the team is actively pursuing a reunion and plans to meet with Skubal’s camp.

So, the pursuit of Tarik Skubal is still on. If the former Cy Young winner agrees to a shorter-term deal with a very high average annual value (similar to Kyle Tucker’s four-year, $240 million contract), a deal with the Dodgers may just be around the corner.