With all the teams involved in Pool B of the World Baseball Classic, nobody expected Team Italy to come out at the top of the group. And not only that, they might have just sealed the fate of Team USA in the World Baseball Classic as well. But things are still not over for Pool B.

Bob Nightengale wrote, “Barring extra innings, Team USA’s ticket to the quarterfinals is now punched due to Italy scoring 4 plus runs.”

Team USA entered Tuesday 3-0 before Italy stunned them 8-6 in Houston. That loss left the Americans 3-1 while Italy improved to 3-0 in Pool B standings. Mexico then entered Wednesday 2-1, meaning the game against Italy controlled Team USA’s quarterfinal hopes.

Fans followed every pitch because one result could rescue Mark DeRosa and his roster from embarrassment. That pressure grew since Team USA brought 22 MLB All-Stars, including Aaron Judge and Paul Skenes.

Trouble started because Italy already beat Team USA 8-6, while Mexico had earlier defeated Italy during pool play. Those results meant a Mexico win would leave the USA, Italy, and Mexico tied 1-1 in head-to-head records. World Baseball Classic rules compare runs allowed with defensive outs recorded between tied teams first.

Team USA, therefore, needed Mexico to either lose or win while scoring at least 5 runs on Wednesday. Analysts noted that Mexico scoring 4 or fewer runs in a victory would eliminate the Americans immediately.

Early action favored Italy when Vinnie Pasquantino launched a second-inning homer off Javier Assad on Wednesday. Aaron Nola supported that lead, striking out 5 batters across 4 innings, allowing 4 hits. Jon Berti then crushed a fourth-inning homer, giving Italy a 2-0 lead and raising the tournament total.

Italy soon extended the margin when Dante Nori bunt scored Jac Caglianone, making the score 3-0. Jakob Marsee later lined a bases-loaded single, pushing Italy ahead 5-0 in Houston Wednesday night.

That 5-0 score mattered since any Italy win sends the 3-1 USA directly into the quarterfinals. It also meant Mexico must score at least 6 runs in regulation to remove the USA. Mexico had only scattered hits early, including Jonathan Aranda’s double, but no runner past second.

Numbers place the Americans safely ahead because Mexico still trailed by 5 runs.

However, one strange rule still hovered over Houston if Italy and Mexico reached extra innings. WBC extra-inning rules start runners on second base, which can inflate scoring very quickly late. If Mexico suddenly piled up runs past 5 during extras, the earlier safety disappears instantly.

That swing could reshape the runs allowed ratio used in the three-team tiebreaker calculation on Wednesday. So even with Italy leading 9-1, many fans kept counting every pitch, run, and out.

The USA and Canada will face off again

With Team USA almost confirmed to play in the quarters of the WBC, they will be facing off against Canada again. Canada finished 3-1 in Pool A after beating Cuba 7-2 behind Abraham Toro’s homer on Wednesday. Starter Cal Quantrill allowed one unearned run in five innings while Otto Lopez drove two.

That result secured Pool A top seed, setting a quarterfinal matchup with Pool B runner-up, likely the USA. With the USA 2-1 after the 8-6 upset against Italy, things looked tight. But with Italy beating Mexico, Team USA is through to the next round and will face Canada.

But with recent events between Canada and the USA catching a lot of eyes, this one will too.

Team USA beat Canada 2-1 in the 2026 Olympic men’s hockey final on Jack Hughes overtime goal. U.S. women also edged Canada 2-1 in overtime when defender Megan Keller scored the golden goal.

Earlier tournament meetings saw Americans dominate Canada 5-0 in the preliminary round at the Milano Cortina Olympics. Those tight 2-1 Olympic finals reminded fans how narrow the rivalry margins are.

Baseball already delivered tension when the USA crushed Canada 12-1 in seven innings in the 2023 WBC. Mike Trout hit a three-run homer, and Nolan Arenado doubled during that nine-run first inning surge. Now Canada arrives first in Pool A, while the USA comes in as the runners-up in Group B. Given Olympic drama and WBC swings, millions will follow every pitch carefully this weekend again