Team USA’s surprise loss to Italy in the WBC didn’t just make things tougher for Aaron Judge and co. but also put manager Mark DeRosa in an awkward spot. Before Tuesday night’s game, DeRosa had said, “It’s weird. We want to win this game even though our ticket’s punched to the quarterfinals,” suggesting the team had already secured a place in the next round.

But once the U.S. unexpectedly lost to Italy, it became clear that wasn’t the case. The defeat left their qualification situation uncertain, and DeRosa ended up facing criticism for the earlier comment. However, he’s now walked back what he had said, acknowledging that the team hadn’t officially clinched a quarterfinal spot after all!

“Yeah, I misspoke. I was on Hot Stove with a couple of buddies today and completely misread the calculations,” DeRosa said. “We knew that Mexico was going to play Italy and then run in all the numbers if we lost tonight, with the runs allowed and runs scored and outs. So I just misspoke.”

Well, the earlier comment from the Team USA manager now looks like a big miscalculation. Naturally, it raises the question: did that assumption somehow affect the team’s mindset going into the game against Italy? Or if the clubhouse really believed the quarterfinal spot was already locked up, it could’ve taken a little of the urgency out of the moment.

The reality, though, turned out to be very different.

The ticket wasn’t punched at all. After a stunning 8–6 loss to Italy, Team USA suddenly found itself in a precarious position. And now their fate depends heavily on the outcome of Wednesday’s Italy–Mexico matchup.

So, if Mexico wins by fewer than five runs, Team USA’s run in the WBC would come to an end right there. If Italy beats Mexico, then things get even murkier. The Americans then need help from the tournament’s tiebreaker rules to move on.

“It’s tough. It’s super tough,” DeRosa admitted when asked about the team no longer controlling its own path to the next round.

Well, DeRosa doesn’t have much managerial experience beyond leading Team USA to a runner-up finish in the 2023 tournament. He has mostly been known in recent years as a co-host on MLB Central since retiring from a playing career that lasted more than a decade. So, this miscalculation is an example of his inexperience.

For now, though, Team USA’s hopes in the tournament are hanging in the balance. Everything depends on how that Italy–Mexico game unfolds.

Team USA’s hopes are still alive

Even after the loss to Italy, Team USA still isn’t out of the picture just yet. There’s still a path forward, but it just depends on what happens next.

On Wednesday, if Italy beats Mexico, both Italy and the United States would move on, with Italy finishing on top of Pool B in the WBC. But if Mexico wins, things get a lot more complicated.

That result would create a three-way tie between Italy, Mexico, and the United States. All three teams are sitting at 3–1 in pool play, and each is going 1–1 against the other two.

So, the tiebreaker rules would decide which two teams advance and which one goes home. The key metric would be runs allowed per defensive out. Here also, Team USA is again lagging behind Mexico after leaking 8 runs in the first 5 innings against Italy.

So yes, it’s a pretty tangled scenario for Team USA right now. Everything really hinges on Wednesday’s Italy–Mexico game, which will determine whether Aaron Judge and the Americans keep their tournament hopes alive or see their WBC journey come to an early end.