The Detroit Tigers would love to lock in Tarik Skubal while they have a chance. However, most around the league believe they won’t be able to match what he’s looking for. If the usual pattern with Scott Boras clients holds true, Skubal is likely headed straight for free agency. Skubal’s name has been buzzing around the GM Meetings in Las Vegas, where the Tigers’ ace is viewed as one of the most intriguing trade pieces this offseason. But judging by how recently he interacted with a Yankees fan, it sure doesn’t look like Skubal is interested in going anywhere.

A fan recently walked up to Tarik Skubal and asked him to sign his Yankees cap. He refused right away and said, “That’s not my hat; get outta here. That’s not my hat.”

Tarik Skubal’s stance couldn’t be clearer. Detroit is his home, and as it seems, he’d like to keep it that way. That being said, even insider Jim Bowden recently advised the Detroit Tigers to offer the ace at least $350 million immediately to signal seriousness to his agent, Scott Boras.

“I mean, I think, you know, the next offer they need to make has to start at $350 million. You have to come out right away and show Scott Boras that you’re going to respect him and you’re going to make him the highest-paid pitcher in Major League history. That’s where the offer starts. And then you have to see where Scott goes with that. Does he counter at $500? Does he counter at $450?”

Scott Harris’s intentions regarding Tarik Skubal’s extension aren’t exactly hidden.

The Tigers know how special Skubal is when he’s at his peak. He practically carried their rotation through the second half and picked up another AL Cy Young in the process. But they’re also realistic enough to know that relying on that formula forever has its limits.

Could Chris Ilitch give Skubal a blank check? A deal that would probably land somewhere around $400 million long-term. But doing that would wipe out a huge chunk of the future spending Ilitch plans for the rest of the roster. That’s how the Little Caesars CEO operates.

It’s a very different approach from his father, Mike, whose only wish before he passed in 2017 was to see the Tigers win a World Series.

If this version of the Tigers is going to accomplish what Mike Ilitch’s teams couldn’t at the end of his life, it’ll be because of strong player development and a reasonably controlled payroll. That means taking calculated risks.

And in the eyes of Harris and Chris Ilitch, giving Tarik Skubal the most significant pitching contract in MLB history doesn’t fall into that category.

Tarik Skubal comes with the usual injury red flags that starters often have

Tarik Skubal had Tommy John surgery back in college while pitching at Seattle University. At that point, his baseball future was far from certain. The Tigers still took a chance on him in the ninth round, and he’s more than paid back that gamble. But there’s a vast difference between taking a draft flyer on a guy coming off Tommy John and committing to a record-setting contract.

You see, any starting pitcher who’s had two Tommy John surgeries faces an uphill battle. Both physically and mentally. Sure, there are always exceptions, but it’s impossible to know which side Skubal would land on.

According to the National Library of Medicine, nearly 35% of people who undergo one Tommy John surgery eventually need a second one. And that’s across all patients, not just athletes who throw a baseball 100 miles an hour for a living.

Someone out there is going to pay Skubal what he’s worth. And they should, considering his résumé and his age. For now, the Tigers are being patient with Skubal and keeping an ear open to trade talks.