The Detroit Tigers would love to lock in Tarik Skubal while they have a chance. But word around the street is that they won’t be able to match what he’s looking for. If the usual pattern with Scott Boras clients holds true, Skubal is likely headed straight for free agency and into a massive contract.

The top MLB agent isn’t a fan of extensions, pushing his players to test the open market more often than not. Add the uncertainty of the expiring CBA to it, and it’s quite likely that Boras opts for negotiation chances with 29 other teams. But that’s a scenario the Tigers best avoid, and there’s only one way to do it.

“I think, you know, the next offer they need to make has to start at $350 million,” Former MLB GM Jim Bowden expressed on Front Office Unfiltered. “You have to come out right away and show Scott Boras that you’re going to respect him and you’re going to make him the highest-paid pitcher in Major League history. That’s where the offer starts. And then you have to see where Scott goes with that. Does he counter at $500? Does he counter at $450?”

Considering the generational run the pitcher is on, it is no secret that Boras is seeking the highest possible contract for his client. The current projection is $350 million and above to top Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million. The Tigers have evidently been reconsidering. Because agreeing to it would wipe out a huge chunk of the future spending Ilitch plans for the rest of the roster.

But MLB executives anonymously suggest they should just go for it. Sure, with a payroll of $152 million, good enough for 17th-highest, they aren’t among big spenders like the Yankees or the Dodgers, but if a championship is the goal, the Tigers need to find a way around it.

This past season, Skubal led AL pitchers in both WAR (6.5) and ERA (2.21), finishing with a 13-6 record. It eventually led him to receive 26 of 30 possible first-place votes to claim his second consecutive Cy Young award. The last time a pitcher won back-to-back Cy Youngs was in 1999 and 2000 when Pedro Martínez did it.

Needless to say, Skubal has been essential in the Tigers’ recent success. The team is 21-10 on the days he has been their starting pitcher. And that fact isn’t lost on GM Jeff Greenberg. “We know how good he is. We know what he’s meant to this organization, especially over the last couple of years,” he stated earlier this month.

To add to it, Skubal himself has been vocal about wanting to stay in Detroit. A fan recently walked up to the pitcher and asked him to sign his Yankees cap. Skubal refused right away and said, “That’s not my hat; get outta here. That’s not my hat.” A few days ago, he also had a very conclusive statement that said he wants to be a Tiger for a very long time.

Now it’s up to Boras and the Tigers to work it out. The agent says he is prepared to listen to everything Harris and Chris Ilitch have to say, but are they also listening to Skubal?

Tarik Skubal comes with the usual injury red flags that starters often have

Tarik Skubal had Tommy John surgery back in college while pitching at Seattle University. At that point, his baseball future was far from certain. The Tigers still took a chance on him in the ninth round, and he’s more than paid back that gamble. But there’s a vast difference between taking a draft flyer on a guy coming off Tommy John and committing to a record-setting contract.

You see, any starting pitcher who’s had two Tommy John surgeries faces an uphill battle. Both physically and mentally. Sure, there are always exceptions, but it’s impossible to know which side Skubal would land on.

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According to the National Library of Medicine, nearly 35% of people who undergo one Tommy John surgery eventually need a second one. And that’s across all patients, not just athletes who throw a baseball 100 miles an hour for a living.

Someone out there is going to pay Skubal what he’s worth. And they should, considering his résumé and his age. For now, the Tigers are being patient with Skubal and keeping an ear open to trade talks.