The Tarik Skubal situation gets crazier day after day. After his elbow injury, fans expected him to be out for a couple of months. But Skubal has already thrown 99 mph in his first rehab outing. But the faster he returns, the faster his career could unravel. And with an early return, there are risks that the Detroit Tigers can’t afford.

“You also have to be careful. You know, you want to protect him against himself sometimes,” noted former GM Jim Duquette after Tarik Skubal made his rehab start.

Tarik Skubal’s recovery has been one of baseball’s biggest stories over the past month. After undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow on May 6, the expectation was that the Tigers’ ace would miss for at least 2 months.

But Tarik Skubal is already making rehab starts and appears much closer to returning than many expected. In his first rehab outing with High-A West Michigan, he threw 5 scoreless innings, allowing just 2 hits while striking out 6 batters. He even threw additional bullpen pitches, showing that, physically, he is ready to go.

While the numbers have shown why he is an ace, not everyone is comfortable with the speed of the recovery.

Former MLB general manager Jim Duquette recently questioned whether Skubal might be pushing too hard to get back.

“Who’s pushing the envelope here? It’s gotta be Tarik Skubal, right?” Duquette said while discussing how fast he has made a comeback.

He later added, “There’s a big risk here if it doesn’t work out,” pointing to concerns about a possible setback.

The concern comes from the fact that there is very little history to compare Skubal’s recovery against. This makes it difficult to predict how his elbow will respond once he returns to the mound with the Tigers. That uncertainty becomes even more important because of Skubal’s value as the deadline approaches.

Before landing on the IL, the two-time Cy Young winner posted a 2.70 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 43.1 innings. Those numbers kept him among the best pitchers in the league. And that also made him one of the biggest names ahead of the Trade Deadline.

With the Tigers not doing well, several reports have linked teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees as a good fit for the ace. But if the injury recurs, Skubal might miss out on one of the biggest deals of the season and could end up getting less than what he is worth during the offseason.

The Tigers also have plenty to lose with Tarik Skubal working towards an early return.

Detroit entered June well below .500, but remained within striking distance of an AL Wild Card spot. A healthy Skubal could help the Tigers make that push during the second half of the season, but that is only if he is fully fit.

At the same time, another injury would create a difficult situation for the organization.

Because if the teams suspect a chance of an injury, they will back out of the deal. This means that the Tigers will not only have to keep Tarik Skubal on the IL, but will not be getting any decent bats or arms to give the team stability.

And then, in the coming offseason, the Tigers will have to lose him to Free Agency and will get nothing in return.

Should the Tigers write this season off? Or should they fight for the postseason?

The story of the season for the Detroit Tigers has been about struggles everywhere. In May, the Tigers had a 6-22 record and averaged less than 3 runs per game. That put them with a 22.3% chance of making the postseason, but they kept slipping away.

The Tigers still hold a 27-39 record and sit at the bottom of the AL standings.

The offense remained one of the worst in MLB. They have hit just 64 homers and scored only 260 runs in the season. And that is why the Tigers have not been able to win.

But the start of June was very different.

In June, the Tigers are 5-1 in 6 games, and the offense seems to be firing. They have scored 37 runs in this stretch, and the return of Gleyber Torres and Kerry Carpenter has boosted the lineup.

Carpenter has 5 RBIs in 5 games, while Torres has 3 RBIs in 5 games, but both of them have had multiple-hit games during this stretch. This has increased the chances of the Tigers making the postseason slightly.

The problem is about to ease a bit because of other facts, too.

We have to understand that the AL this season has been performing below par, and even though the team is losing, they have a very good chance at making the postseason with a Wild Card spot.

But for that to happen, the pitching has to continue to carry and finish out games, even after Skubal returns. The offense, other than Torres and Carpenter, and players like Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene need to step up and take responsibility.

And that is what the Tigers will be aiming for.

They are just 5.5 games behind the last Wild Card spot, and teams like the Minnesota Twins, the Houston Astros, and the Athletics have not been consistent. If the Tigers can capitalize on this, they can make it to the postseason.

Or the other option for the Tigers is to write this season off. That is what they will be doing if they trade away Tarik Skubal. But this also gives them a good advantage.

Tarik Skubal’s trade value is at an all-time high right now, and they could get a good bunch of players that could help the team in the coming season. They could trade him for money and top prospects and look at building a team for the long-term.

But at the end of it all, it is up to the front office: Are they thinking of making the full push to the postseason? Are they going to drop out and build for the future?