Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s production at the plate crashed in 2026. It wasn’t a gradual drop; it was a dramatic fall from a 23-home-run, .848-OPS season to a 9-homer, .695-OPS one. His recent numbers definitely don’t justify a 14-year, $500 million contract. Questions are inevitable with a production decline this steep so early into a massive contract. But Guerrero Jr. has found a way to defend his contract, except it backfired. MLB analysts have called him out.
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“The one thing you’re not looking for when you give a 26-year-old in the prime of his career and lead you to the precipice of your first World Series in nearly three decades is this answer. He is way too smart,” said Chris Rose on the Chris Rose podcast.
“This is not going to cost him all that goodwill, but it’s going to sit here and make people think, ‘What the hell is going on in your brain?'”
In April 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays signed him to a $500 million contract extension, with a full no-trade clause to keep Guerrero Jr. within the franchise through the 2039 season. He delivered.
Vladdy helped the team reach its first World Series since winning in 1993. Guerrero Jr. hit a clutch two-run home run off Shohei Ohtani in Game 4 of the World Series, and another solo shot off Blake Snell in Game 5. He recorded a slugging percentage of .600 in 38 plate appearances. But his power bat has been missing all season.
Guerrero Jr.’s exit velocity dropped to 90.5 mph, alongside a considerable decline in hard-hit rate (44.7%) and barrel rate (6.9%). In 2026, 56% of his hard-hit balls were grounders, up from last year’s 43%.
Injuries did not help his case either.
Guerrero Jr. suffered from recurrent back tightness throughout the season. It forced him to exit Sunday’s game against the Texas Rangers early and miss two subsequent games against the Baltimore Orioles.
The Blue Jays entered the Orioles series 3 games behind the final AL Wild Card spot, with their playoff hopes still alive. But the Orioles swept the Blue Jays and eliminated them. Vladdy only played in the final game of the series, going 1-for-4.
Guerrero Jr.’s missing out on crucial games raised further questions about the 27-year-old All-Star’s ability to deliver and the contract he received. Following the criticisms, Guerrero Jr. defended his deal during an interview.
“They didn’t pay me to hit 40 every year,” a candid Guerrero Jr. reportedly told Veronica Batista.
“They paid me for what I already did. You know how it is with the fans. When they’re good, they’re with you 100%, but when you smell like s–t, like we say here, nobody supports you.”
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has achieved plenty.
The first baseman won the Hank Aaron Award and finished runner-up for the 2021 AL MVP after hitting .311 with 48 home runs and a 1.002 OPS. He also won the Silver Slugger Award and All-Star Game MVP that season.
In 2022, he became a Gold Glove winner at first base. Hitting .323 with 30 homers and 103 RBIs in 2024, he won his second Silver Slugger and made the All-MLB First Team at first base. Guerrero Jr. also earned All-Star selection this season, but he refused to play.
This Toronto homegrown star is also a fan favorite.
But with how the season unraveled this year, especially after last year’s impressive World Series run, fans would naturally question his underperformance. But Trevor Plouffe believes talking about money won’t help at all. He even called the interview “stupid.”
“Just don’t talk about your contract ever. Do not talk about money. No one can relate to you. No one is ever going to feel sorry for you,” said Trevor Plouffe on the Chris Rose Sports podcast.
“…They don’t pay you for years five through 10 because they understand there’s an aging curve, but that’s not all of it. You still have to perform it.”
But with the season already lost, Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays can only focus on improving next year. But what Rose is more interested in is Vladdy’s reception at Rogers Centre in tonight’s game against the Cincinnati Reds.