Former Arizona Diamondbacks member Zac Gallen bet on himself by rejecting a $22.05 million qualifying offer, becoming a free agent, and so far, he’s losing that bet. But as his market stalls, a different path forged by fellow Scott Boras clients might hold the very blueprint he should have followed.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic explains the matter.

“One executive, granted anonymity for his candor, said Gallen might suffer from being one of the least attractive free agents among those who rejected qualifying offers. Players in that position, attached to draft-pick compensation, are vulnerable to getting squeezed in the market.”

Gallen’s decision to reject the qualifying offer has proven costly. Not only does it attach draft-pick compensation that deters potential suitors, but it also comes after a down year where his performance didn’t justify a premium contract.

Despite having a career-high 4.83 ERA in 33 games, his strikeouts decreased to 21.5%. His season was salvaged slightly by a 3.32 ERA in his last 11 starts, but it was still a less-than-ideal performance overall. Such factors might have contributed to him being one of the least attractive to teams.

Gallen’s refusal of the qualifying offer follows that of Nick Pivetta and Anthony Santander last season.

Pivetta rejected a $21 million qualifying offer from the Boston Red Sox and had a slow-moving free agency before he eventually signed a four-year $55 million deal with the San Diego Padres. However, he only received $4 million in his first year.

Similarly, Santander also refused a $21.05 million qualifying offer from the Orioles before he got a five-year, $92.5 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. However, his contract has heavy deferrals, which reduced its value to $68.6 million.

But Zac Gallen can benefit from a short-term AAV deal like some of his peers in the Scott Boras camp, like Matt Chapman, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, and Pete Alonso.

Each of these players accepted short-term deals along with draft-pick compensation. Hence, they performed much better when they became free agents.

Meanwhile, he is projected to receive a two-year $42 million contract, according to The Athletic’s Tim Britton.

With spring training looming, Gallen faces a critical choice: bet on himself with a short-term deal or risk a prolonged and potentially disappointing free agency.

The Baltimore Orioles are interested in signing Zac Gallen

Zac Gallen has gained attention from the Baltimore Orioles this offseason, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

They are looking to improve their starting rotation after it was injury-plagued and performed poorly this past season. The team has now targeted Gallen to be part of their starting rotation after they failed to sign Ranger Suarez.

Zac Gallen would help solve the Orioles’ rotation problems.

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As one of the durable players in the league, he will fit in among the starting pitchers, alongside Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, Trevor Rogers, Brandon Young, and others. Gallen can be a healthy alternative if any of their original rotation of pitchers get injured.

Now that the Baltimore Orioles are reportedly interested in Zac Gallen, the only thing left to see is whether they offer him a long-term contract or convince him to accept a short-term deal with high AAV.