UFC 261- Brendan Allen vs Karl Roberson: Prediction and Analysis

Published 04/23/2021, 12:00 AM EDT


After having a few bouts canceled due to injuries, Karl Roberson finally gets his chance to make the walk to a UFC octagon at UFC 261 this weekend. ‘Baby K’ will take on fellow middleweight and highly touted Brendan Allen. 

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Both men are coming off losses in their recent outings and will be aiming to get back into the win column this weekend. The middleweights are currently unranked and a positive result on Saturday is the first step towards getting that number next to their name. Ahead of the fight, we take a closer look at both fighters and map out a possible route to victory for both men. 

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Karl Roberson vs Brendan Allen promises to be a cracker of a bout at UFC 261 

Karl Roberson made his UFC debut on Dana White’s Contender Series with a stunning knockout win over Ryan Spann in July 2017. His record since has been topsy turvy, with a few losses sandwiched in between wins. He is currently 2-1 in his last three fights, having lost his most recent fight to Marvin Vettori in July 2020. 

Brendan Allen made his debut on Dana White’s Contender Series in July 2019 with a submission win over Aaron Jeffery. He then went on a three-fight win streak with two stoppages. Allen is 2-1 in his last three fights and lost in his most recent outing against Sean Strickland via TKO. He will be aiming to bounce back to the win column this weekend. 

Baby K’ has secured most of his wins via submission (44%). Roberson is extremely lethal in striking and has landed an impressive 3.08 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career while absorbing just 1.81 in return. ‘Baby K’ has averaged 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes and 0.81 submissions in the same time period. 

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All In’ has secured 53% of his wins via submission, which is not surprising given he has averaged 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes and a mind-boggling 4.47 submissions in the UFC. ‘All In’ does not lag behind in the striking department and has averaged 2.24 significant strikes per minute. However, he absorbs 3.5 significant strikes per minute, which could be his downfall against this particular opponent. 

For Allen, getting the fight to the ground will be his most obvious route to victory. However, if the fight remains on the feet, his leaky defense along with Roberson’s striking skills might mean another loss for him. It is likely to remain on the feet given ‘Baby K’s 64% takedown defense.

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Prediction: Karl Roberson via decision

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Kevin Binoy

823 articles

Kevin Binoy is an MMA author at EssentiallySports. He earned a Bachelor's degree from Fergusson College and has been covering sports professionally for over two years. Besides working with the MMA writing team, Kevin is a core member of the organization's web stories team and is responsible for delivering engaging MMA web stories.

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