UFC 264 Prelims: Michel Pereira vs Niko Price: Prediction and Analysis

Published 07/04/2021, 6:04 AM EDT


UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena after a gap of more than a year to host UFC 264 headlined by an all-important trilogy clash between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier. The event also features an important prelims card match between welterweights Michel Pereira and Niko Price.

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ROCHESTER, NY – MAY 17: (L-R) Danny Roberts of England and Michel Pereira of Brazil face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at Rochester Riverside Hotel on May 17, 2019 in Rochester, New York. (Photo by Michael Owens/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

‘Demolidor’ Pereira will look to extend his two-fight win streak. The Brazilian secured his previous win over Kalinn Williams at UFC Fight Night: Neal vs Thompson. Price, meanwhile, will look to pick up a victory after his last match ended in a draw (later turned into a no-contest) against Donald Cerrone.

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LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 19: (R-L) Niko Price punches Donald Cerrone in their welterweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on September 19, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Pereira has a career record of 25 wins and 11 losses. He has picked up 10 wins by T/KO, 7 by submission, 8 by decisions. Prior to beating Williams, he had trumped Zelim Imadaev at UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Sakai.

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‘The Hybrid’ Price has a career record of 14 wins and 4 losses. He has picked up 10 wins by T/KO, 3 by submissions, and 1 by decision. Prior to the draw against Cerrone, he suffered a second loss against Vicente Luque at UFC 249.

Michel Pereira vs Niko Price- Analysis

With the welterweight division producing many contenders for the Kamaru Usman’s title lately, every other match has its own significance.

If we compare their stats, Pereira has the height advantage over Price. However, ‘The Hybrid’ has the reach advantage. Price leads the former on significant strikes landed per minute by 5.33 to 3.74, but lags behind in striking accuracy. ‘Demolidor’, with 38 bouts, has more fight experience than his 4-year-older foe.

The average takedown per 15 mins is comparatively low for Price to that of Pereira (0.89-1.76). If we look at takedown accuracy and percentage for Pereira, he is miles ahead of Price. Pereira has takedown accuracy of 70% and defense of 100%. Meanwhile, ‘The Hybrid’ has a takedown accuracy of 22% and defense about 72%.

‘Demolidor’ absorbs 2.84 significant strikes per minute with 58% significant strike defense. Compared to him, Price absorbs way more significant strikes with 5.83 per minute with a defense rate of 49%.

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If we cast an explicit glance over their stats, Pereira is extremely efficient in both attack (both on the feet and on the ground) and defense. The latter may prove crucial as ‘The Hybrid’ has earned finishes in 13/14 wins. Furthermore, responsible defensiveness can see ‘Demolidor’ get into position for a finish. Given the numbers, one could even see him opt to stay safe and look to land the takedown to control the fight.

Price is more of a striker. Hence, if he wants to win the UFC 264 match, he should go for it early, as a longer match may benefit Pereira.

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Final Prediction: Pereira via unanimous decision

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Akshyay Srichandan Mahapatra

422 articles

Akshyay Mahapatra is a UFC author for EssentiallySports. He wished to combine his passion for the UFC (that he has been following since 2008) as well as his love for writing. This motivated him to enter the world of combat sports journalism.

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