UFC 264 Prelims: Ryan Hall vs Ilia Topuria: Prediction And Analysis

Published 07/04/2021, 2:26 PM EDT


UFC returns to action at T. Mobile arena, Paradise, Nevada after a gap of more than a year to host UFC 264: McGregor vs Poirier 3. The card features an exciting featherweight clash between Ryan Hall and Ilia Topuria in the prelims.

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Hall last featured in a unanimous decision win over Darren Elkins at UFC Fight Night 155. Topuria, meanwhile, picked up an impressive KO win over Damon Jackson at UFC on ESPN 19 last year in December.

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‘The Wizard’ has so far picked up 8 straight wins and has incurred 1 loss in his professional career. He has so far picked up 2 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by submission, and 3 by decision. He has already beaten some established names like B. J. Penn (at UFC 232: Jones vs Gustafsson 2) and Artem Lobov in his brief career.

‘El Matador’ Ilia has been a force to reckon with. He is unbeaten so far in his career and would make his third appearance for the promotion. So far he has picked up 7 submission wins, 2 KO/TKO, and 1 decision win. He doesn’t have a big match exposure yet like ‘The Wizard’.

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Ryan Hall vs Ilia Topuria- Analysis

Hall has a height of 5’10” and Topuria stands at 5’7″- clearly the former enjoys a bit of an advantage over here. He also holds a 1″ reach advantage over Topuria with 70″ to 69″.

If we look at their overall career statistics, Hall lands 2.32 significant strikes per minute with 43% accuracy, which is slightly less than Topuria’s 2.5 strikes and 45% accuracy.

Hall slightly trumps Topuria on significant strike defense with 75% to 68% of Topuria. However, if we take the defensive part, Topuria is miles ahead of his opponent with a 4.25 average takedown per 15 minutes to that of a mere 0.31 for Hall.

In terms of takedown defense percentage, Hall is light years away from Topuria’s numbers. ‘The Wizard’ has 0% of takedown defense whereas Topuria accumulated an astonishing 100% takedown defense accuracy. The average submissions attempted is also quite for the former with 0.9 compared to 4.2.

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A clear glance is enough to suggest that ‘The Wizard’ is more of a foot player than anything. He would definitely look for an early finish and would try to keep the game away from the mat.

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The problem for Hall is that Topuria is a master submission specialist. A grappler with astute takedown accuracy. He is also good at striking but would be keen to make this a wrestling affair. If he could somehow negate the initial assault, he might stand a chance to win at UFC 264.

Final Prediction: Topuria via unanimous decision

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Akshyay Srichandan Mahapatra

552 articles

Akshyay Mahapatra is a UFC author for EssentiallySports. He wished to combine his passion for the UFC (that he has been following since 2008) as well as his love for writing. This motivated him to enter the world of combat sports journalism.

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