UFC 265 Late Prelims- Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Jessica Penne: Prediction and Analysis

Published 08/06/2021, 3:56 PM EDT


UFC 265 will present an opportunity for fans to return to the stadium for the fifth time this year as heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane will collide for the interim heavyweight title in the main event. Apart from this, there are also some exciting clashes in the prelims as well. Women’s strawweights Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Jessica Penne will clash to move ahead in the division.

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Karolina will be under immense pressure to get a win as she is currently riding a 4 fight skid. It all started from her UFC 228 clash against Jessica Andrade and has continued till her last match against Xiaonan Yan at UFC Fight Night: Felder vs Hooker.

LAS VEGAS, NV – JULY 15: Team Pettis fighter Jessica Penne enters the Octagon before facing team Melendez fighter Lisa Ellis during filming of season twenty of The Ultimate Fighter on July 15, 2014 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Brandon Magnus/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Currently, her career record stands at 12 wins and 6 losses. She has picked up 1 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, and 9 decision wins. It could be a do-or-die battle for her.

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Meanwhile, Penne picked up a win in her last fight against Lupita Godinez at UFC on ESPN 22: Whittaker vs Gastelum via split decision. She broke her 3 fight losing streak and that would have given her confidence.

WATCH THIS STORY: Top 5 best fights in the history of UFC women’s division

Her career record stands at 13 wins and 5 losses. She has accumulated 2 wins via KO/TKO, 7 by submissions, and 4  by decisions. She will look to continue her momentum.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Jessica Penne- analysis

If we look at their physical stats, Karolina stands at 5’3″ tall and has a reach of 64″. Meanwhile, Penne measures 5’5″ tall and has a reach of 67%.

Looking at their career stats, Karolina lands 5.27 significant strikes per minute and has an accuracy of 39%. She absorbs 5.65 significant strikes per minute and has a defense rate of 56%. She averages 0.10 takedowns per 15 mins and has an accuracy of 12%. Karolina also has a takedown defense of 75%.

Meanwhile, Penne lands 2.40 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 33%. She absorbs 4.45 significant strikes per minute with a rate of 48%. Penne averages 1.50 takedowns per 15 mins with an accuracy of 23%. She has a takedown defense of 42%.

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If we look at Kowalkiewicz’s losses, some have come against worthy fighters like Jessica Andrade, Alexa Grasso, and Yan Xiaonan. But the way she has lost will worry her more. Her last opponent Yan had 5 takedowns on her. Carla Esparza mauled the same Yan on the canvas in her previous fight.

Penne, meanwhile, succeeded against Godinez, because of the latter’s poor gameplay. Her grappling heavy game coupled with astute accuracy in takedowns will make it even worse for Kowalkiewicz. Apart from that, she has momentum from her last fight compared to Karolina’s losing skid of 4 matches. It’s looking like going Penne’s way in the end.

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Final Prediction: Penne to win via unanimous decision

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Akshyay Srichandan Mahapatra

552 articles

Akshyay Mahapatra is a UFC author for EssentiallySports. He wished to combine his passion for the UFC (that he has been following since 2008) as well as his love for writing. This motivated him to enter the world of combat sports journalism.

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