UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez-Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez:- Prediction and Analysis

Published 10/08/2021, 10:21 PM EDT


UFC Vegas 39 takes place this weekend at the UFC apex. The card will be headlined by a women’s strawweight bout between Marina Rodriguez and Mackenzie Dern. Dern is currently ranked 4th in the division, whereas Rodriguez is ranked 6th. 

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The strawweight title will be on the line early in November as Zhang Weili takes on Rose Namajunas. A dominant win for either Rodriguez or Dern this weekend will make them firm favorites to take on the winner of the title fight at UFC 268.

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Going into the fight, Dern is on an impressive four-fight win streak. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is on a two-fight win streak. Ahead of the fight, we take a closer look at the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters and map out a possible route to victory. 

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Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez- a fight with massive implications on the title picture at 115-pounds

The fight between Dern and Rodriguez is an extremely interesting matchup stylistically. Dern is a multiple-time world champion in Jiu-Jitsu and is lethal on the ground. Therefore, it is no surprise that she has secured 64% of her wins via submission. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is a striker with legitimate knockout power. She has secured 43% of her wins via T/KO. 

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Rodriguez will go into the fight with a two-inch height and reach advantage. Over the course of her UFC career, she has landed an impressive 4.89 significant strikes per minute and has absorbed just 3.24 in return. Dern, on the other hand, lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute while absorbing a concerning 3.57 in return. 

It is no secret that Dern’s easiest route to victory will be to take Rodriguez down and submit her. The Jiu-Jitsu ace averages 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and 2.3 submissions in the same time period.

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However, submitting Rodriguez will be easier said than done given she has a 62% takedown defense rate. If Dern secures a win it will be her 5th victory on the trot. Hence, it will be hard to imagine anything but a title shot in her next bout.

Who do you think takes the win at UFC Vegas 39? Let us know in the comments below!

Prediction: Mackenzie Dern to win via decision

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Kevin Binoy

1222 articles

Kevin Binoy is a senior UFC author at EssentiallySports. He earned a Bachelor's degree from Fergusson College and has been covering sports professionally for over two years. Besides working with the MMA desk, Kevin is a core member of the organization's web stories team and is responsible for delivering engaging MMA web stories.

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