After a thrilling weekend in Texas, NASCAR hits Talladega next. This superspeedway is notorious for its intense side-by-side action, owing to its broad lanes and big turns. Ford drivers have historically ruled the roost here, with Ryan Blaney clinching the latest of Ford’s 10 wins out of the last 20 Cup races at this track. But with the weather possibly playing spoilsport this weekend, we could see a change in fortunes.

Out of all, it is Bubba Wallace, who thinks he might have a shot at the win. And let’s just say we trust his reasons. No matter how he chose to put them across. 

Bubba Wallace is eyeing a break in his winless streak

Last season, Bubba Wallace squeaked into the playoffs as the 16th driver based on just points. His last trip to victory lane was back in September 2022 at Kansas. Despite a solid start to 2024, he’s yet to capture that elusive win nine races in.

Recently, NASCAR’s official Twitter sparked a conversation with a photo of Wallace alongside Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Alex Bowman, posing the question, “Which driver will end their winless streak?” Wallace retweeted this with a sly comment, hinting at his chances at Talladega, especially with rain in the forecast.

Wallace tweeted, “We all know NASCRAP gon give bubbles the win because it’s gonna rain. Only way he can win. Won’t be watching🤬.” From what it seems like, he is referring back to 2021 at Talladega, where he notched his first Cup win after the race was called off at 117 of 188 laps due to rain—making history in the process. This, however, ended up becoming a bittersweet moment for Wallace as a lot of fans went to criticize him saying something like this was the “Only way he can win,” what the 30-year-old wrote on Twitter. But now, with the chances of rain looming large, Wallace is probably betting on himself to drive to victory lane.

This weekend at Talladega race could get a bit soggy, with the 2.66-mile high-banked oval in Lincoln, Alabama, looking at a whopping 90% chance of rain for race day. The Weather Channel reports we are likely in for a wet race all Sunday, with the GEICO 500 set to kick off 20 minutes later than the scheduled time, 3 p.m. ET. Complicating matters, Talladega doesn’t have lights, upping the odds for a postponement or delay if they need to dry off the track. But sunset isn’t until 8:20 p.m. ET, so there’s a little wiggle room.

While rain was a good luck charm for Bubba Wallace back in 2021 do the numbers really back him up for another win their year?

How’s Michael Jordan’s 23XI driver shaping up for Talladega?

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Last spring at Talladega, Kyle Busch won the race, with Ryan Blaney and Chris Buescher taking the next top spots. During that final lap, Wallace and Blaney got tangled up while duking it out for the lead. Talladega is notorious for its nail-biter finishes, and this weekend’s race will be no exception. But if you’re betting on Wallace, the stats might make you think twice.

Michael Jordan’s prodigy heads into Talladega with an average finish position of 20.0 over 12 starts. He’s managed to crack the top 5 and top 10 only once, which includes his 2021 victory. Since then, his best finish has been 16th. But, this is Talladega—unpredictable and wild—so Wallace definitely has a shot at crossing the finish line first again.

On the other hand, if you’re looking for a dark horse, keep an eye on Erik Jones. He may seem like a long shot, but the 27-year-old Legacy Motor Club driver is no stranger to Talladega. In his eighth full-time Cup Series seasons, Jones has racked up three wins and has led laps in six of his last seven starts at this track, with a total of 14 top-10 finishes in 14 races. He could be the one to watch this weekend.