The driver, once labeled the most likely to cause a wreck by his fellow drivers, is now confident to challenge for the NASCAR Cup Series championship. It doesn’t come as a surprise, however. Carson Hocevar has been everything that one would expect a champion to be, and the only thing he lacks? Well, blame it on the car!

“Well, it might surprise a lot of people, but it wouldn’t surprise us,” Hocevar told Kevin Harvick, as narrated by the latter, upon being questioned about winning the championship.

“He’s very confident in what he does, and right now it’s like on a day like yesterday, right? He qualifies on the pole. All the momentum wins the Truck race, wins last week in Talladega, but they didn’t freak out, and they got a solid finish,” Harvick added, speaking on his namesake podcast.

Carson Hocevar doesn’t just carry a strong personality off the track. His high-risk maneuvers, although dangerous, seem to work out in his favor. Many insiders even draw comparisons with Dale Earnhardt, owing to his aggressive driving. Even on superspeedways, when most drivers attempt to save fuel, Hocevar pushes to the limit to gain the most places. In fact, it was one of the aspects of his maiden win. But as Harvick suggests, there’s more to his overall driving and racecraft.

And at Talladega, the maturity showed most in the moments that mattered. Leading 19 laps, Hocevar survived three consecutive late restarts and held off Chris Buescher by just 0.114 seconds for the win. Before the penultimate restart, with the race on the line, his spotter, Tyler Green, recalled a detailed radio exchange about lane choice.

Hocevar ended the conversation simply: “Winners choose front row.”

Then he went and proved it. The win came in his 91st Cup Series start and was only Spire’s second victory in eight years of competition.

“He’s [Hocevar] figured out how to not get himself in positions to tear the car up and get decent finishes out of it. And that’s what makes them dangerous; if they can capitalise on the days when they have speed.”

Even fellow driver Ryan Blaney had pointed out earlier this year that if Hocevar can understand the thin line between aggressive driving and wrecking, he can end up winning races. And a few rounds in, that seems to be the case. After 11 races, he sits sixth in the championship standings with 333 points, 193 behind leader Tyler Reddick, comfortably inside the playoff cutline.

Now, Spire Motorsports needs to work on its competitiveness. The car has not been slow, like, at Kansas, Hocevar was ranked fifth in speed. Instead, it’s converting that pace into results that has been the problem. Restarts have cost him positions consistently, and at Las Vegas, a bout of loose wheels mid-race derailed what could have been a stronger finish.

As Hocevar himself put it, the team has been “right there” but keeps “missing it just a little bit” at the 1.5-mile intermediates, where Toyota’s 23XI and Joe Gibbs Racing cars have been particularly dominant.

But Hocevar is sure that the issue will fade soon enough.

Carson Hocevar is confident with Spire

“I don’t think we’re far off. I feel like we’re right there with the Hendrick cars, like Kansas, Vegas, we just kind of missed it just a little bit,” Hocevar said earlier. One of the biggest benefits that Spire has had this year is Toyota’s overall dominant form over Chevrolet and Ford. The OEM has so far won eight of the first eleven rounds this season.

However, that gap has shrunk in recent races. Chase Elliott has already won twice, and Blaney has also been in the Victory Lane. So, the fact that Hocevar managed to clinch that victory at Talladega, followed by another top 10 finish. Safe to say, it’s not just the Toyota domination that Spire has been working with. Carson Hocevar as a factor is just as strong. He also won the Texas race, racing in the Truck Series for the team.

So, even if the team does not improve instantly, Hocevar wouldn’t have to worry about his future.

“I think we can do it, I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that,” he said earlier this year. “We can build this into a championship threat. I think we can get our cars there, and I think I can get there.”

Spire co-owner Jeff Dickerson has made that belief structural: Hocevar, who could have walked into free agency, signed a long-term deal that goes “into the next decade,” making him the cornerstone around which the entire organization is being built.

“Walking in the first day in 2023 when I got to drive the 7, I saw how small they were then compared to now,” Hocevar said. “They don’t have to continue to say we’re building the dream. We’re there.”

So, at the end, Carson Hocevar can contend for the championship with Spire Motorsports. Considering his overall competitiveness, the team’s uplifting form, and the new format, it is a real possibility. However, he would have to find his way into the Victory Lane a lot more often to make it concrete.