Chase Briscoe had the chance to drag himself back into the championship fight at Kansas, and he let it slip. He entered the Hollywood Casino 400 87 points behind Kyle Larson, finally passed him late in the race, and suddenly had the opening he desperately needed. Then it unraveled. The lead disappeared, the points gap got even uglier, and Briscoe walked away sounding like a driver who already knows the title may be gone. His six-word admission afterward was about as close to conceding the championship as it gets.

“Just felt like I had to win there to, to stay in contention for a championship. And obviously now losing, I don’t know, 123 points back, it’s probably not going to happen,” said a disappointed Chase Briscoe in a post-race interview after he finished fourth at Kansas.

For much of the Hollywood Casino 400, Briscoe looked like he might give himself a real chance to close the championship gap. Larson had dominated the race from the front, but Briscoe stayed close enough to keep the pressure on, particularly during the final stage.

Then, on Lap 237, Briscoe finally made the move he had been waiting for. He passed Larson for the lead in Turn 1, briefly turning the championship battle on its head. However, leading proved much more difficult than chasing.

Briscoe had spent much of the race battling an increasingly loose car, and once he moved ahead, the problem became even more apparent. Larson stayed within roughly three car lengths before Briscoe brushed the wall exiting Turn 2 on Lap 257. That opened the door for Larson.

Four laps later, Larson retook the lead, and Briscoe’s situation deteriorated further. He brushed the wall again on Lap 262 before getting into it once more on Lap 265. The second incident allowed Austin Cindric to pass him for second.

Briscoe eventually crossed the finish line fourth, watching what had briefly looked like a championship-changing opportunity turn into another major points deficit. That is where the math becomes particularly painful.

Briscoe now sits 123 points behind Larson with six Chase races remaining. On paper, that is a daunting mountain. But NASCAR history has already produced one remarkable example of a driver turning an apparently hopeless championship situation into a title-winning run.

Tony Stewart did exactly that in 2011. Entering that year’s 10-race Chase, Stewart was winless and openly questioned whether his team even deserved to be in the championship fight. He famously said the No. 14 team was “just taking up space.”

Then everything changed. Stewart won the opening two Chase races at Chicagoland and New Hampshire before eventually collecting five victories across the 10-race postseason. He also won at Martinsville, Texas and Homestead.

The championship came down to the finale against Carl Edwards. Stewart entered Homestead trailing in points, then endured multiple setbacks and fell to the back of the field twice. Somehow, he fought through the chaos, passing 118 cars to win the race.

Edwards finished second, leaving both drivers tied at 2,403 points. Stewart won the championship on the tiebreaker, with his five Chase victories beating Edwards’ single win.

That is the sort of historical precedent Briscoe now needs to chase. With six races remaining, simply collecting solid finishes may not be enough to erase a 123-point deficit. He would need an extraordinary run, potentially mirroring Stewart’s 2011 surge by turning victories into a sustained points comeback.

The irony is that Stewart once entered the Chase believing his championship hopes were barely worth discussing, only to produce one of the greatest postseason runs in NASCAR history. Briscoe, however, is already reaching the opposite conclusion.

“It’s probably not gonna happen.”

There may still be six races left, but after Kansas, Briscoe himself appears to have conceded just how improbable the championship has become.