Back-to-back playoff wins usually make a driver the favorite. For Chase Briscoe, they made him one of three. Heading into Martinsville, he sits fourth in the standings, 79 points off the lead, with Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell just ahead, all within six points of each other. With Homestead one week away, I asked Briscoe whether all three can still arrive with a real shot or whether the garage will shrink to one. His answer pointed somewhere I did not expect.
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“I think it can be all three. It just depends on what the five does. You know, if the five has a day like Phoenix, then I think all three of us are in it,” Briscoe told Steven Taranato on X.
The five is Kyle Larson’s Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, and the reply shows Briscoe does not see the Gibbs trio controlling its own fate. Asked whether he, Bell and Hamlin can all reach Homestead-Miami with a shot at catching Larson, the No. 19 driver said yes, but only if the leader stumbles.
That Phoenix day is still fresh. On Oct. 18, Larson cut a tire, hit the wall, and finished 34th, scoring just three points. A 49-point lead shrank to five over Christopher Bell, who finished fourth, and six drivers suddenly sat within 56 points of the top. Briscoe led late in that race himself before an alternate pit strategy dropped him to eighth.
His answer turns blunt when he flips the scenario.
“But if he goes and says, say he runs fourth or whatever, then one of us wins. And really only the guy that won is going to have any mathematical chance. So it really just depends on what happens with the five,” Briscoe said.
That reads as arithmetic more than pessimism. This year’s Chase runs 10 races with 16 drivers and no eliminations, so every point carries to the finale. Larson then won at Talladega, his 19th victory in the Next Gen car and the most in its history, which turned a five-point lead into a 73-point cushion over second place.
Bell sits 74 back and Briscoe 79. Briscoe started that race from the pole and finished 33rd, which explains much of the gap.
None of the three owns a Cup title. Hamlin won the regular-season championship and has scored more points over the full season than any other driver, yet he fell short in last year’s Phoenix finale. He took four tires late while Larson took two, and Larson finished third to Hamlin’s sixth.
Martinsville could slam the door early
Sunday could make the whole debate moot. Larson needs 59 points, a win plus at least four bonus points, to clinch regardless of what anyone else does, though he must still start the Homestead finale before NASCAR crowns him. Hamlin won the pole and has six career victories at the track, but he needs to leave Martinsville no more than 22 points behind Larson to control his own destiny.
The field behind the Gibbs cars is thin. Joey Logano trails by 100, Ryan Blaney by 107 and Tyler Reddick, who won Phoenix for his sixth victory of the season, by 126. All three are still mathematically alive, but the question put to Briscoe centered on his own team.
The cluster also leaves the three teammates in an awkward spot. Hamlin sits second, 73 back, with Bell one point behind him and Briscoe five more. Any Gibbs driver who wants to leapfrog the others has to outscore them at Martinsville and Homestead while hoping Larson fades, which is a different problem than beating the field.
Briscoe’s confidence is not empty talk. He passed Larson for the lead at Kansas in September with 30 laps to go, only to lose it when his car went loose and he slid to fourth. A week later he held off Larson’s last-lap charge at Las Vegas, then edged Bell in a Charlotte photo finish.
“Yeah, if he has an issue, I think all three of us can beat him,” Briscoe said.
That “if” carries a lot of weight. Larson, the defending champion, is chasing a third title after winning in 2021 and 2025. The crowded picture has drawn comparisons to 1992, when Alan Kulwicki won a finale that still had five other mathematical contenders.
Until Sunday’s result is in, the Gibbs trio is left with the same math as before. Briscoe has the wins to back his confidence, but none of it matters if Larson leaves Homestead without a problem. Their title hopes do not run through their own pit boxes. They run through the No. 5 team, and Briscoe was honest enough to say so out loud.