Chase Elliott rolled into Las Vegas with the kind of quiet confidence that usually spells trouble for the competition. Qualifying fourth, right behind the Joe Gibbs Racing trio that locked out the front row, the No. 9 looked poised to crash the Toyota party. Elliott backed it up early, finishing fifth in Stage 1 and keeping himself well within the mix as pit strategies and tire calls shuffled the deck.

For much of the afternoon, it felt like Elliott’s team had found that sweet balance between patience and pace. Yes, exactly the kind that wins playoff races. But as the laps wound down, fortune had other plans. What unfolded next didn’t just cost Elliott a strong finish. Instead, it might’ve derailed his Championship 4 hopes altogether.

Chase Elliott reflects on Vegas result

Chase Elliott’s day at the South Point 400 started with high hopes after a high-place qualification. But he struggled as the race went on. “I struggled back there worse than I was hoping to. The balance I needed to be up front was definitely different than what it was when we lined up last year,” Elliott admitted.

Despite his early promise, the shifting track conditions and adjustments proved challenging, making it hard to find the speed he needed to stay competitive. The turning point came during a green flag pit stop in Stage 2 when Elliott’s team was handed a penalty for an uncontrolled tire rolling away — an infraction NASCAR takes very seriously for safety reasons.

This forced Elliott to make an additional pit stop and put him deep in the field. Reflecting on the penalty, Elliott said, “It was what it was, you know, at that point. I thought we had a really good day going and thought we were right there in the mix. Stuff happens. Unfortunately, it’s just bad time for it.”

The penalty derailed his race and limited his ability to fight for a top finish. Elliott finished 18th and now sits sixth in the playoff standings, 23 points shy of the cutoff line. With Talladega and Martinsville looming (two tracks where he has previously excelled), Chase Elliott remains cautiously optimistic.

“I feel fine,” he said, anticipating these upcoming races as critical opportunities to revive his championship bid and claw back into the Championship 4 fight. However, the Vegas race shows how quickly fortunes can change (for better or worse) in NASCAR’s high-stakes postseason — something that Elliott should be cognizant of in the upcoming races.

Can Chase Elliott make it to the Championship 4?

With two critical races remaining before the NASCAR Championship 4 at Phoenix, Chase Elliott faces an uphill battle. The upcoming races, Talladega Superspeedway on October 19 and Martinsville Speedway on October 26, will be make-or-break events for Elliott’s championship hopes.

Historically, both tracks have been strong for Elliott. He has multiple top-ten finishes at Talladega, including a win in 2022, where drafting skill and racecraft play a huge role in success. At Martinsville, Elliott’s technical skill in navigating the tight, flat track has translated into consistent, solid top-5 finishes and past playoff success. These venues could be pivotal in helping him regain lost ground and possibly clinch a win to guarantee a spot in the Championship 4.

Elliott’s closest competition includes William Byron, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney, who are also battling for advancement either with points or a win. Elliott’s task is clear: capitalize on success at Talladega and Martinsville while hoping others falter. With the playoffs intensifying, every lap, pit stop, and strategy call counts as drivers jostle for the title opportunity.

While the odds are challenging, Elliott’s combination of experience and skill at these tracks keeps his championship dream alive. The question remains: Can he deliver under immense pressure and book his place in Phoenix’s winner-take-all finale? The next two weeks promise answers with high stakes and dramatic racing ahead.