Six years ago, Chase Elliott climbed from his car at Phoenix Raceway as NASCAR’s newest Cup Series champion. This October, he returns to the same track with four races left, two wins already on his season record, and a title fight that has taken a very different turn. The driver who once finished his championship run in Phoenix can now see the same destination slipping away. And when Devon Henry asked about catching teammate Kyle Larson, Elliott did not pretend otherwise.

“Obviously, you know, I think the championship is certainly a stretch at this point,” Elliott said.

Yet Elliott stopped short of full surrender, saying he still believed winning races was within reach. Looking back, Elliott has not had a winless season. He won at Martinsville Speedway in March and Texas Motor Speedway in May. Yet neither wins came during the Chase, and the results since then have made it difficult to argue that he is building toward another title.

After Charlotte, Elliott sat 185 points behind Larson, with only four races remaining. He can still win a race. Catching the driver leading the championship is another matter.

Elliott’s Chase started with a run that left him chasing points almost immediately. He finished 14th at Darlington Raceway, 31st at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway, and 23rd at Bristol Motor Speedway. Gateway hurt most. Elliott started eighth but ended the day 31st. A promising starting position meant little once the race was over.

Kansas Speedway finally gave the No. 9 team something to build on. Elliott started 18th and finished eighth, then followed it with seventh at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Those results suggested he could move forward from the middle of the field. They did not, however, make up for the damage already done.

Charlotte showed how quickly a decent day could become another missed opportunity. Elliott started ninth but finished 12th after a loose wheel and a speeding penalty disrupted his race. He recovered from the problems, but not enough to keep pace with the championship leaders. The finish cost him another 22 points relative to Larson.

Larson, meanwhile, finished sixth at Charlotte after leading 97 laps and winning the opening stage. That was his least impressive Chase finish to that point, yet he still extended his lead over Denny Hamlin to 49 points. Elliott’s 185-point deficit was more than three times that margin. Larson could have a difficult afternoon and still leave with his championship position strengthened.

That is the bind Elliott faces under NASCAR’s new Chase format. The 16 contenders race across 10 rounds without eliminations, and points accumulate throughout the postseason. A race win is worth 55 points before stage points, so one victory can move a driver forward. But it cannot guarantee a comeback. Elliott needs to gain ground repeatedly, while Larson would have to surrender a substantial share of his advantage.

The numbers explain why Elliott has lowered his expectations for the championship. They do not explain why he still believes a win is within reach.

Before the Chase began, Elliott offered a revealing account of his season. He acknowledged that the summer stretch had been poor, but he did not believe the team’s earlier success was a fluke. Texas was his clearest example. He led 87 laps and held off Hamlin late, showing that the No. 9 could run at the front for long stretches.

“Texas was certainly no fluke; led a lot of the latter part of that race,” Elliott said at Chase Media Day. “Had really good pace.”

He also believed he had a “legit shot to win Vegas.” Those comments matter because they explain his optimism better than the win column alone. Elliott had seen performances that convinced him the car could compete for victories. What frustrated him was the team’s inability to repeat them often enough.

At Chicagoland, where he finished 11th, Elliott recalled stretches when the car was running competitively and matching the pace of drivers at the front. He wondered why the team could not produce that performance consistently. His concern was not simply that results had been poor. It was that the speed appeared in flashes, then disappeared from the final classification.

That distinction is central to his latest comments. Winning a race requires the right combination of car performance, strategy and execution over one weekend. A championship demands those things repeatedly. Elliott’s two victories show what the No. 9 team can do when everything comes together. The Chase results show how often it has failed to put the full picture together since then.

“Just try to go out and win four races and see where that puts you guys going home,” Elliott told Henry. He added that another victory would be “a nice way to end the season,” and said he believed those goals were within reach.

Phoenix gives him a chance to test that belief at the place where he once achieved the biggest prize in the sport. But sentiment will not make the car faster. Elliott finished 23rd there earlier this season, so his 2020 championship offers no guarantee of a better result this time.

The title may be slipping away, but Elliott has not run out of reasons to race hard. A Phoenix win would not erase 185 points or undo Larson’s consistency. It would give the No. 9 team proof that the speed Elliott has talked about can still produce a result. Returning to the scene of his championship, he has one final chance to make the ending about more than the title he is unlikely to win.