20 years! That’s how long Denny Hamlin has been racing without his elusive title. Now, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has the chance to seal his fate at Phoenix. However, ever since the veteran has been riding high on his 60th career win, he has been marred by bad luck in the last two races.

Denny Hamlin’s Martinsville victory never came, as he lost an engine and had starter issues. The 44-year-old had throttle cable issues at Talladega as well. With all the mechanical woes that have plagued the No. 11 team, NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Jr. sounds confused about Hamlin’s chances of winning his first title.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. believes that Denny Hamlin is on thin ice

Speaking on the Dale Jr. Download, the NASCAR Hall of Famer said, “I don’t know. He might have a little; he might feel like he’s on a little, you know, delicate ice. I don’t know.” It is no secret that Denny Hamlin’s luck, right when it comes to the penultimate race, has always been skewed by some issue or the other.

Junior’s bid stems from the incident at Martinsville Speedway. Denny Hamlin’s confidence took a hit when his car suffered a sudden engine failure during the playoff race, forcing him out when he was running second and effectively knocking the wind out of his championship momentum. He had already been dealing with mechanical issues, such as starter problems and power steering failure, which made the breakdown at Martinsville especially frustrating and underscored the mechanical vulnerabilities right when execution mattered most.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. added, “Denny’s already told us in the past. He’s been here a million times. He’s like, ‘Getting here is the hardest part. The hard part’s over. I’m in whatever happens today is what’s going to happen.’ Yep. Whoever’s going to win this race or be the best of this four, that’s what’s happening. And it’s not. It’s kind of like out of my hands to an extent, right? He’s going to drive the car. He’s going to do his best job today. And if he gets outrun that day by that guy and he does win a championship, well, that’s it. But the hardest part was getting there.”

If history is anything to go by, Hamlin has had anything but luck when fighting for the championship. Back in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2014, the No. 11 crew made a strategic gamble late in the race where they stayed out on older tires while others pitted, and Hamlin was overtaken by Kevin Harvick in the final laps, ultimately costing him the title.

Five years later, Hamlin entered the Championship 4 but faced overheating issues after his team applied an expensive piece of tape on his grille during a pit stop at Homestead. That unsettled stop dropped him out of contention and derailed his title bid. And this time around, Hamlin cannot have any of these issues.

In fact, Hamlin himself admitted, “My concern is that over half the playoff races I’ve had mechanical failures. Like five of the nine, I’ve had major mechanical failures. The ones we haven’t, we won. That’s the good news.” But as Hamlin reveals his strategy for Phoenix, he is getting a lot of support from fans and other drivers.

Denny Hamlin comes up on top as the championship favorite

As the NASCAR Cup Series prepared for its decisive showdown at Phoenix Raceway, Denny Hamlin’s championship prospects are at the forefront of discussion. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran enters the weekend as FanDuel Sportsbook’s leading pick at +200, reflecting strong confidence in his chances.

Hamlin has a proven track record at Phoenix with victories in 2012 and 2019, and he leans on both his own experience and his team’s established success as he continuously chases a long-awaited 1st cup title.

FanDuel’s evaluation also mirrors his standout 2025 campaign. A best-of-six series win, his 60th career triumph, and his place among the few drivers in history to surpass 16,000 laps led. With four previous Championship 4 appearances, including third-place finishes in 2014 and 2021, Hamlin returns to familiar territory, determined to finally convert that opportunity into a championship.